Slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was seen as a key obstacle to any agreement on Israeli hostages captured during the October 7 attack, which he carried out.
With his death leaving his group in a leadership void, the future of the hostage negotiations appears to have become even more complicated.
Hamas now needs to appoint a replacement, and that person will play a key role in determining the fate of the Israelis held hostage since the attack on October 7, 2023.
Of the 251 hostages taken to the Gaza Strip that day, 97 are still held there, including 34 whom the Israeli military has confirmed have been killed.
Negotiations for their release are led by Israel’s intelligence services with the help of the United States, Egypt, and Qatar.
But analysts say that this task will not be easy with Sinwar’s departure.
“The fate of the hostages may now be decided for the simple reason that there is no one left to negotiate their release,” said Karim Mezran, a Middle East expert at the Atlantic Council think tank.
US intelligence believes that “Sinwar’s stance has hardened in recent weeks, leading US negotiators to believe that Hamas is no longer interested in reaching a ceasefire or hostage agreement,” according to New York-based Soufan. The center said.
“Any upcoming talks could also serve as a litmus test for Hamas’ operational capability in the post-Sinwar era,” the think tank said.
While the families of the hostages welcomed Sinwar’s killing, they also expressed “deep concern” about those still held captive.
“We call on the Israeli government, world leaders and mediating countries to diplomatically complement the military achievement by immediately reaching an agreement on their release,” the Forum of Families of Hostages and Missing Persons said Friday.
Hamas ‘decentralized’
Part of the problem is that Hamas is no longer the ultra-hierarchical organization it was when it launched the October 7 attack that sparked the Gaza war.
Destroyed and scattered by Israel’s invasion, and with the Gaza Strip divided in two by Israeli forces, today the militant group “operates in a very decentralized manner, in very localized cells”, according to the Fondation Jean-Jaurès think tank. researcher David Khalfa told AFP.
He said, “Hamas has now become a militia with local warlords” with ties to “the families that are apparently being held hostage”.
Khalfa said, “This is going to be a real problem for the Israelis and the Americans. Instead of a broad agreement on hostages, they will probably aim for releases bit by bit.”
By mid-2024, the structure of Hamas was divided into two parts: on the one hand, the political wing led by Ismail Haniyeh, based in the Qatari capital Doha, and on the other, the paramilitary wing led by Sinwar in Gaza.
Sinwar became the overall leader of Hamas after Haniyeh’s assassination in July.
The balance of power between the two is now tilted toward the political bureau, “where the sources of funding, military support and militia training are concentrated”, Khalfa said.
If it chooses an exiled leader, the group would risk seeing its new chief isolated from ground forces in the Palestinian territories.
But if it appoints a fighter like Sinwar’s brother Mohammed, Hamas would signal that it is less interested in a political solution to the war.
‘Very blurry’ photo
Hostage negotiations are now in uncharted territory.
John Alterman of the American think tank CSIS said, “All efforts prior to negotiations were based on the idea that Sinwar had connections to most of the hostages and could shape their actions.”
“The picture is now very blurry and we are likely to see a variety of outcomes,” he said.
There are also fears that the hostages may be executed, perhaps in revenge for Sinwar’s murder or because the terrorists feel they can no longer sell the hostages for cash.
Mezran said, “No one in the group is willing to take the lethal risk of caring for them… The hostages could be left to fend for themselves and be able to escape.”
“There are also fears that mid-level Hamas operatives may be tempted to eliminate the hostages to protect their identities from eventual retaliation by Israeli forces.”
There is immense pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but his government does not seem ready to release the hostages at any cost.
It will not forget the release of more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in 2011 in exchange for Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier held hostage for five years by Hamas.
Sinwar himself was among the liberated Palestinians.
“They want to move away from the Shalit precedent, which was a mistake for which they paid a high price,” Khalfa said.
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
