Sri Lanka has made history by bringing leftist Anura Kumara Dissanayake to power. The people have rejected all the known and tried political leaders and dynasts – Rajapaksa, Wickremesinghe and Premadasa – who according to them contributed to the economic decline of the island nation.
The Election Commission declared AKD, known as Dissanayake, the winner after the second round of counting. Dissanayake won 5.7 million (42.3%) votes after two rounds of counting in the country’s first second preference vote count – defeating Sajith Premadasa of SJB (Samagi Jana Balawegaya) who got 4.5 million (32.8%) votes. It was a major defeat for incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who contested as an independent candidate and finished third with 17.3% of the votes. Namal Rajapaksa, son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, managed only 2.4% of the total votes.
This is a strong victory for Dissanayake, leader of the Marxist JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna) and the broad front NPP (National People’s Power), which won just over 3% of the vote in the last presidential election in 2019. It also shows the extent of Sri Lankans’ distrust of the old regime.
Shortly after his victory, Dissanayake wrote on X: “This achievement is not the result of the work of a single individual, but the collective effort of millions of people like you. Your commitment has brought us here and for that I am very grateful to you. This victory belongs to all of us.”
Pragmatic Leader
An analysis of Dissanayake’s political life reveals him to be a pragmatic leader who knows how to deal with global political realities despite his ideological roots in Marxism.
Dissanayake’s political activism began in the early 1990s as a university leader, and this brought him close to the JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna), a left-wing Marxist-Leninist party consisting mainly of Sinhalese rural youth and known for its armed insurgency in 1971 and 1987-89. It is interesting to note that the origins of the JVP are linked to a faction within the Communist Party of Sri Lanka (CPSL) in the 1960s, mostly in its pro-China faction.
However, grassroots electoral politics forced the JVP to soften its stance, which had a positive impact on leaders like Dissanayake, who became the party’s national organiser in 1997. In 2000, he became an MP. His elevation as JVP chief came in 2014 after a long wait. Dissanayake’s flexibility and willingness to learn enabled him to understand Sri Lanka’s economic issues and connect with rural and working class citizens, especially during the country’s worst economic crises in the late 2010s and early 2020s. His brief tenure as agriculture minister also helped him connect with Sri Lanka’s rural agricultural sector, which set him apart from the political elite.
Intense resentment against the political elite over economic chaos has pushed Sri Lankans to oust the Rajapaksa family in 2022. For voters fed up with rapid inflation, food, fuel and medicine shortages, and rising debt, Dissanayake’s anti-corruption stance and promise of political reforms appealed to the masses, especially the youth.
This victory will be a huge deal for both Dissanayake and the JVP. This is their first time in power and their lack of experience could be a cause of concern domestically and internationally.
India is closely monitoring developments in its neighbourhood, which is just a few hours away by speedboat from its southern tip, Rameswaram. So is China, which is trying to increase its influence on the island nation.
Sri Lanka has turned to China over the past 15 years, handing over several lucrative projects to China. Among other projects, China bagged a project to develop the airport in Colombo. Earlier, the strategically important Hambantota port, located on the world’s busiest shipping route linking Asia and Europe, was handed over to China, giving it an edge in the region.
India’s bet
India has spent millions of dollars in aid and loans to ensure stability in Sri Lanka, its closest neighbour.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Dissanayake on his victory and said that he looked forward to working closely with him to further strengthen India-Sri Lanka multifaceted cooperation.
In his reaction on Monday (September 23), Dissanayake thanked Prime Minister Modi for his “kind” words and support and said he shares his commitment to strengthening ties.
Historically, the JVP has been anti-India, particularly in the late 1980s, when the party agitated against Indian imports, including medicines.
India will also be concerned about the Tamil population in Sri Lanka, as Dissanayake’s party has had a complex and antagonistic relationship with Tamil nationalism and the LTTE. The JVP opposed the India-Sri Lanka Peace Accord in 1987 and did not support the implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution, which delegates powers to the country’s Tamil minority.
The majority of Tamils did not vote for Dissanayake because they believe his coalition NPP is indifferent to the political demands of Tamils. Whether Dissanayake will be able to reach out to the country’s Tamil minority after taking office remains to be seen.
Experts believe this hardline stance may not hold in the face of strategic geopolitical realities. Dissanayake showed his keenness to engage with India as early as February 2024 and met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.
Sri Lankans have placed their faith in Dissanayake as their last hope. They are yet to experience his governance or his policies. His recent speeches indicate a more nuanced approach, softening his leftist stance.
Dissanayake has a lot of work to do on the domestic front and fixing the economy will be his priority. He is expected to dissolve parliament and hold parliamentary elections soon. Some of his public statements and decisions in recent times have not appeared to be in India’s interest.
India should use its diplomatic channels to ensure that Indian investments such as the wind power project in the northern part of Sri Lanka are not threatened. Given the strategic location of the project in northern Sri Lanka, any hindrance could mean a Chinese company or its proxy taking over, which would be a matter of concern given the importance of the region and the presence of Tamil minorities there.
