A historian, who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine US elections, has now given his opinion on the Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris battle.
Allan Lichtman, often referred to as the “Nostradamus of U.S. presidential elections,” makes his predictions based on the “13 keys to the White House.”
The method consists of 13 true or false questions, and if six or more keys go against the ruling party, the 77-year-old American University historian predicts their defeat. If less than six keys go against the ruling party, it will win.
These keys assess a variety of factors, including economic performance, social stability, and incumbent charisma. Through careful analysis of historical data dating back to the era of former US President Abraham Lincoln, Lichtman has developed a forecasting model that goes beyond the conventional methods used by traditional election analysts.
“13 Keys to the White House” by Allan Lichtman
From Ronald Reagan’s re-election in the midst of an economic recession to Bill Clinton’s victory against George H. W. Bush, Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted key electoral contests in the US.
The 13 keys to the White House designed by him are as follows:
Party mandate: Following the midterm elections, the incumbent party has more seats in the US House of Representatives than in the previous midterm elections.
Nomination Competition: There is no significant challenge to the incumbent party’s nomination.
Charge: The current President represents the current party.
Third-party factors: There are no notable third-party or independent campaigns.
Short-term economic stability: The economy does not face recession during elections.
Long-term economic growth: Real per capita economic growth is equal to or higher than the average growth of the preceding two terms.
Policy Changes: The current administration implements major changes in national policy.
Social Stability: There was no long-term social unrest during the entire tenure.
Scam-free: The current administration is free of major scandals.
Foreign/Military Accidents: There have been no significant failures in foreign or military affairs under the present administration.
Foreign/Military Victories: The current administration achieves significant success in foreign or military affairs.
Current attractions: The incumbent party’s candidate is charismatic or has national hero status.
Challenger Appeal: The opposition party’s candidate does not have the charisma or national hero status.
Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, who will win the US election?
Allan Lichtman currently prefers US Vice President and Democrat Kamala Harris over her Republican rival Donald Trump. He told News Nation that he believes “a lot has to go wrong for Harris to lose.”
According to their forecast, the Democrats, with Harris as the likely nominee after Joe Biden drops out of the re-election race, currently hold six of the 13 key positions. These include primary competition, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandals, and no challenger’s charisma.
“Right now, Democrats lose three important things by going with Harris,” he told NewsNation.
He said that the Democrats have lost the key to the “party mandate” due to the massive defeat in the 2022 midterm elections. He also said that Harris has lost the key to “charisma” and “staying in power”.
I plan to make my official prediction in August, after the Democratic Convention.
See my evaluation below on the 13 Keys Tracker to see where the keys stand now. Please listen to our live show on 7–25–24, linked in the comments below, where we go into detail about each key. pic.twitter.com/pJpkpa3SzW
— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) July 26, 2024
However, according to his forecasting model, Democrats would have to lose three more keys to predict Harris’ defeat. But he says that’s unlikely to happen.
He has said he plans to make his official prediction for the 2024 White House election after the Democratic convention in August.
