Russia is preparing to mobilize 500,000 personnel this coming autumn, with plans to send some soldiers to the eastern front within weeks of training, a Ukrainian official said on Saturday.Andrey Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, said that the Russian military command intends to use the mobilized forces to urgently eliminate the personnel shortage and establish a new operational direction.“Russia is preparing a mobilization of 500,000 people for the autumn. Some are planned to be thrown into battle in the first two weeks to close the hole in the east, while others will be trained for at least a month for the possible opening of a new front direction. This is the plan of the Russian Federation,” Kovalenko wrote on Telegram.He said Russian officials, including First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergei Kiriyenko and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, had assured the leadership that mobilization would secure a military advantage.
Recruitment decline and election concerns
The warning comes after Ukrainian military intelligence assessed that Moscow has avoided the topic of mobilization to minimize domestic political risks ahead of the autumn State Duma elections.Ukrainian military intelligence officer Andriy Chernyak said that the Russian government actively suppresses public discussion of the mobilization. “The Kremlin will now avoid the topic of mobilization as much as possible and say that it will not happen because they are preparing for the elections,” Chernyak said. He said that the possibility of mobilization remains high after the elections.Chernyak emphasized that Russia has the infrastructure to handle a large influx of personnel. “They have enough training centres, they have enough existing training grounds. And there needs to be mobilization to strengthen the areas that already exist,” he said.
Russia falls short of recruitment target
The anticipated mobilization push is related to Russia’s reported reduction in contract military recruitment. Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service reported that only 195,000 military contracts were signed in Russia, short of the target of 204,500. The agency also estimates the loss of 196,700 Russian personnel in 2026, including about 115,300 “irreparable” losses.Regarding possible new axes of attack, Chernyak said that Ukrainian intelligence is currently not creating any strike groups in Belarus. While about 50,000 Belarusian personnel and Russian support units are deployed there, there is no immediate sign of an offensive build-up, although forces could be moved within a few weeks.