After spending nearly 14 years in orbit, a NASA satellite is expected to crash back to Earth on Tuesday, March 10. The spacecraft in question is Van Allen Probe A, which weighs approximately 1,323 pounds (600 kg). It was launched in August 2012 along with its twin, Van Allen Probe B, to study the radiation belts around the Earth. Both probes were deactivated in 2019, but Probe A’s time in orbit has now reached its end. Experts say most of the satellite will burn up upon re-entry, although some fragments may survive. The risk for people on the ground is low, about 1 in 4,200.The estimated re-entry time is 7:45 pm EDT on March 10, according to the US Space Force, which will take 24 hours. Observers say this is only an estimate, and adjustments may be made as tracking data improves. Any surviving fragments are likely to fall into the ocean, as water covers about 70 percent of the Earth’s surface. It does not seem that debris will be seen landing around any major city.
NASA’s Van Allen Probe satellite is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere on March 10
The Van Allen Probe was initially called the Radiation Belt Storm Probe. They orbited the Earth in a highly elliptical path ranging from approximately 384 miles (618 km) to 18,900 miles (30,415 km). The mission was designed to last only two years, but both satellites exceeded expectations. Probe A continued collecting data until October 2019, while Probe B operated until July 2019. Experts say solar activity in recent years has expanded Earth’s atmosphere, increasing the force of friction on satellites. This probably led to Probe A landing earlier than originally planned.During their operational years, the Van Allen Probes collected data on the radiation belts around the Earth. Scientists use this information to understand how solar activity affects satellites, astronauts, and even ground-based systems like communications networks, GPS, and power grids. By studying these regions, researchers have reportedly improved predictions of space weather phenomena, which can sometimes interfere with electronic systems on Earth. The data also helps plan future missions and better predict threats from solar storms.
NASA details satellite reentry and debris threats
NASA says most of the satellite will burn up while passing through the atmosphere. Nevertheless, some components may survive. These pieces can bounce and fall into the sea, which will greatly reduce the danger to humans. Experts estimate that the chance of injury is about 0.02 percent. Observers say it’s interesting to track, but people don’t need to worry. The Space Force will update re-entry predictions in real time, so more accurate timing can come closer to the event.
What will happen to NASA’s second Van Allen Probe satellite?
Probe B is not expected to return to Earth until approximately 2030. Its descent appears to be less affected by recent solar activity than Probe A. Both satellites were decommissioned but will remain in orbit until their re-entry. They continue to serve as a reference for scientists studying space weather and its effects. Experts say tracking their descent helps improve understanding of orbital decay and atmospheric drag, which is useful for other satellites still in service.