Kotak Equities expects Vodafone Idea’s revenue to improve 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a marginal increase in average revenue per user (ARPU), even as subscriber attrition continues. At the end of the brokerage model period, subscribers fall by 1 million to around 196.7 million, while ARPU may rise to Rs 169 per month, accounting for tariff adjustments and an additional day in the quarter.
Nuwama also sees revenue growth of just 0.5% QoQ, supported by modest ARPU expansion but weighed down by a declining user base. Brokerages expect EBITDA margins to be flat sequentially. “Key monitorables include progress on 5G rollout, fundraising plans and updates on AGR application,” notes the brokerage.
Operating performance is likely to remain stable
UBS expects a weak Q2FY26 for the telco in the absence of price hikes and continued subscriber losses. It estimates revenue and EBITDA growth of 2.1% and 4.2% YoY with sequential growth of 1.2% and 2.8% respectively. UBS pointed to downside risk to FY26 capex, saying funding constraints could delay expansion. “We will monitor management commentary on fund raising and possible relief measures around AGR or spectrum dues,” it said.
JM Financial projects 0.8% QoQ revenue growth to Rs. 11,100 crore and a marginal 1.1% QoQ increase in reported EBITDA to Rs. 4,660 crores. Pre-IND AS EBITDA, which reflects the company’s cash earnings, rose 0.9% QoQ to Rs. 2,200 crore is likely. It expects the net subscriber loss to narrow to 0.5 million during the quarter, similar to the previous quarter, with an addition of about 1 million in mobile broadband (MBB) users aided by ongoing network expansion.
Motilal Oswal also sees a slower pace, forecasting 1% QoQ revenue growth, with an additional one day benefit from continued decline in subscriber base. The brokerage expects EBITDA margin to decline 30 bps QoQ to 41.5%. It estimates that ARPU will increase modestly to Rs. 166, while total subscribers are expected to decline by around 1 million.
While losses may be narrowing, funding remains a major overhang
Analysts expect Vodafone Idea’s net loss to narrow modestly this quarter, as operational efficiency improves and network costs offset finance costs. The company’s recent moves to control costs, consolidate towers and reduce network overlap have begun to reflect in a stable cost base.
Kotak expects 1% sequential EBITDA growth, indicating that while operating leverage remains limited, the company’s cost controls support cash flow stability. JM Financial and UBS also see incremental improvement in profitability metrics, helped by a healthy mix of high-ARPU users and stable opex trends.
UBS noted that the delay in fund infusion could force Vodafone Idea to scale back its capital expenditure plan for FY26, further hurting its ability to compete with larger peers Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel.
Subscriber attrition and ARPU trends
Most brokerages expect Vodafone Idea’s ARPU to grow by 1-2% QoQ, supported by premiumization and gradual migration to higher-value plans. However, ongoing subscriber losses continue to limit ARPU growth gains.
Vi’s ARPU in Q1FY26 was Rs. 165 as compared to Rs. Expected to be between 166-169. The subscriber base could decline by 0.5-1 million users, which would extend the downward trend as network gaps and delayed 5G rollouts drive churn.
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