The election of the relatively moderate Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s president has raised the hopes of Iranians seeking social freedoms and better relations with the West, but few are expecting major policy changes.
The political fortunes of Iran’s ruling clerics depend on tackling economic hardship, so Pezeshkian may have a comparatively strong hand in reviving the economy, but his scope to allow social freedoms will be limited, insiders and analysts say.
Under Iran’s dual system of clerical and republican rule, the president cannot make any major policy changes on Iran’s nuclear program or foreign policy, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei makes all decisions on top matters of state.
However, the president can influence the tone of policy and will be closely involved in the selection of a successor to the 85-year-old Khamenei.
Hardliners entrenched in Khamenei-controlled institutions such as the judiciary, the armed forces and the media have in the past blocked either new openings to the West or domestic liberalisation.
Khamenei has laid out the guidelines he wants to see in the new government, advising Pezeshkian to continue the policies of hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May.
“Pezeshkian considers himself a ‘theorist’ — committed to the ideological tenets of the revolution — and has clearly stated his loyalty to the Revolutionary Guards and Khamenei,” said Karim Saadjadpour, an associate at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment.
Will Iran change its stance on nuclear standoff?
Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old former heart surgeon, won Iran’s presidential runoff election last week and has not yet been sworn in.
He has pledged to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy and reduce tensions with the six major powers involved in now-stalled nuclear talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.
Indeed, analysts said Pezeshkian’s victory was a blow to hardliners such as his opponent, the hawkish Saeed Jalili, who opposed any opening of the door to the West and any revival of the nuclear deal.
Jalili’s supporters have criticised a hardline monitoring body for allowing Pezeshkian to contest the election, with insiders suggesting the decision was made by Khamenei to ensure high turnout amid consistently low participation since 2020.
Pezeshkian hopes that revived dialogue with the West could lead to a relaxation of tough US sanctions, given the growing public discontent over economic hardships.
However, White House spokesman John Kirby said on Monday that the United States is not ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran under a new president.
The stakes are huge for Pezeshkian. The president could be politically vulnerable if he fails to revive the deal, which then-US President Donald Trump abandoned in 2018 and reimposed tough sanctions on Iran.
“He has a tough road ahead of him… Pezeshkian’s inability to revive the agreement will weaken the president and also fuel resentment against the pro-reform camp, which had backed him,” a senior former reformist official said.
Restoring relations with the United States, which Iran’s rulers have called “the Great Satan” since they took power in the 1979 revolution, is still out of the question.
Will the economy boom?
As the economy remains Khamenei’s biggest weakness, breaking free from US sanctions that have caused Iran to lose billions of dollars in oil revenue will remain a top economic goal for Pezeshkian.
Millions of Iranians are struggling under a combination of sanctions and mismanagement, with rising prices and limited spending power.
Khamenei knows the economic struggle is a continuing challenge for the ruling clerics, who fear a resurgence of protests that have been going on since 2017, fueled by persistent hardship among low- and middle-income people.
“The failure to improve the economy will lead to street protests, especially now that people have high expectations from Pezeshkian because of his election promises,” a source close to Khamenei said.
Analysts say Iran’s economic outlook looks even more uncertain, as Trump’s return as US president is likely to lead to even harsher oil sanctions.
Will strict social restrictions change?
Pezeshkian enjoys insider status and close ties to the theocratic Khamenei, and may be able to soften the blow by building bridges between the factions, but that will leave him unlikely to bring about the fundamental changes that many pro-reform Iranians are demanding.
Analysts say Pezeshkian’s position is likely to be similar to that of his predecessors – reformist President Mohammad Khatami and pragmatist Hassan Rouhani – who championed Iranians’ desire for change but were ultimately blocked by the influential clerical elite and hardliners in the powerful Revolutionary Guards.
Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the New York-based advocacy group Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI), said “Pezeshkian is neither a reformist nor a moderate… As a foot soldier of Khamenei, Pezeshkian will be subject to his wishes, which have clearly been to rule by violence and repression.”
As an MP in 2022, Pezeshkian criticised the ruling establishment over the custodial death of young Iranian woman Mahsa Amini, which sparked months of unrest in Iran.
Will Iran change its regional policy?
The highest authority in regional policy is not the president but the Guards, who are answerable only to Khamenei.
Pezeshkian takes office at a time when tensions are rising in the Middle East due to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Indicating no change in Iran’s regional policies, Pezeshkian on Monday reaffirmed Iran’s anti-Israel stance and its support for resistance movements across the region.
“Supporting the resistance of the people of the region against the illegal Zionist regime (Israel) is rooted in the fundamental policies of the Islamic Republic,” Pezeshkian said in a message to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)