Why did Modi fail to get absolute majority?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is headed for a third consecutive term in power in a more tough general election than expected.

His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to have fallen short of a majority, trailing by a little over 272 seats in the 543-seat parliament. However, its coalition partners have gained additional seats.

The results are a personal blow for Mr Modi, who has always won a majority in elections as chief minister of Gujarat and prime minister of India, and dominated the country’s politics for a decade.

The mandate marks a stunning revival for the opposition alliance led by the Congress Party, defying earlier predictions of its collapse, and in stark contrast to exit polls and pre-poll surveys.

More than 640 million people voted in the seven-week marathon election, which election officials described as a “world record”. Nearly half of the voters were women.

Many world leaders have crossed the finishing line in their third term elections and Mr Modi is no exception. The BJP remains India’s largest party by seats, and if Mr Modi secures a third term with his allies, the Prime Minister will equal the record of India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru.

But his party has lost more than 50 seats, dimming the attractiveness of a third term, especially since Mr Modi has set a target of winning 400 seats for the alliance, and anything less than that seems an inadequate achievement.

This has led to a happy atmosphere in the Congress camp, while there is some disappointment in the BJP. Despite the BJP emerging as the single largest party, the burden of campaigning and expectations has left many of its supporters disappointed.

Mr Modi’s supporters believe his surety for a third term rests on several factors: a record of stable governance, the appeal of continuity, efficient welfare programmes, and the perception that he has enhanced India’s global image.

To his Hindu nationalist base, Mr Modi has fulfilled key manifesto promises: ending the autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir, building a Ram temple in Ayodhya and implementing a controversial citizenship law. Several BJP-ruled states have enacted laws tightening rules on interfaith marriages.

The significant decline in BJP’s seats can be linked to unemployment, rising prices, growing inequality and underemployment. Controversial army recruitment reformsAmong other things, Mr Modi’s A tough and divisive campaignThis violence, specifically targeting Muslims, may also alienate voters in some areas.

His ambitious slogan “Ab Ki Baar, 400 Paar”, which aimed to secure more than 400 seats for the NDA alliance, may have backfired, as such a huge majority has created fear of constitutional changes among the poor.

The biggest setback for Modi’s party came in Uttar Pradesh (UP), a state larger than the United Kingdom and three times more populous. With 80 parliamentary seats, UP has the most seats. Significant influence in national politics – Many people consider it the gateway to Delhi. Both Mr Modi and Rahul Gandhi are MPs from here.

So then what are the main conclusions of this election?

A blow to Brand Modi

Mr Modi’s popularity also owes itself to his mastery of branding, which turns routine events into spectacle and cleverly sends out messages. A weak opposition and a largely favourable media have also helped him build his brand.

The election results show that Brand Modi has lost some of its sheen, suggesting that Mr Modi is also vulnerable to anti-incumbency. In other words, he is not as invincible as many of his supporters believed. This gives the opposition fresh hope.

Return to coalition politics

India has a history of chaotic coalition governments, although some coalition governments in the 1990s and early 2000s played a significant role in implementing economic reforms,

If the BJP forms the government, it will have to rely on allies and adopt a more consultative and deliberative approach.

This dependence makes it vulnerable to collapse if allies feel neglected. The party, once considered all-powerful, is now dependent on allies, unlike in 2014 and 2019.

Major setback to BJP

Mr Modi’s more than a decade of uninterrupted rule at the top has underlined the emergence of what some political scientists call a one-party dominant system in India.

It has five main characteristics: a charismatic leader, unrivalled control over resources and communications, unrivalled organisational machinery and disorganised opposition. Decreasing freedom is also a characteristic of a one-party dominant system.

Modi’s BJP is not the first party to dominate Indian politics. For many years after independence, the Congress ruled uninterrupted. Tuesday’s results have returned India to what many consider “normal politics,” in which multiple parties share power and compete for power.

The re-emerging opposition

These results will give energy to the Congress-led opposition, which is being heavily criticized.

In February, the diverse alliance known as INDIA (short for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) faced turmoil when one of its key leaders, Nitish Kumar, quit – and later rejoined the BJP.

But the opposition, led by Rahul Gandhi, ran a vigorous campaign and reduced the gap despite a biased media and limited resources.

There is more to come for them. The BJP holds a third of India’s more than 4,000 state assembly seats and has previously lost to regional parties. Five states are due to go to polls in the next 14 months – all of which could be fiercely contested.

The BJP could face tough competition in the upcoming elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana this year. The upcoming Delhi elections could pose a challenge, while the Bihar elections in October could present a regional hurdle.

So what could a possible third term mean for Mr Modi?

India needs to do more work and make some improvements.

The economy is booming, driven by government spending. Yet inequality is rising. Private investment and consumption must rise, and the poor and middle class will need more money in their pockets to spend more.

That won’t happen if there aren’t enough jobs. In a country full of ambition and frustration, young voters are likely to turn away from the BJP – nearly two-fifths of India’s more than a billion people are under the age of 25.

Mr Modi has faced criticism for marginalising Muslims, India’s largest minority community, which has borne the brunt of the violence. His government has been accused of stifling dissent, jailing prominent opposition leaders on trumped-up charges.

But a third term has often proved difficult for many leaders, as unforeseen and unexpected events derail governments and their plans.