What might Putin gain or lose from a prisoner swap with the West?

When eight Russian citizens, including a convicted murderer, arrived in Moscow on Thursday as part of a historic prisoner swap with the West, President Vladimir Putin welcomed them like heroes.

“I want to congratulate all of you on your return to your homeland,” Putin said with a smile. He reassured the group that also included cybercriminals and spies that Russia had not forgotten them “even for a minute.”

Putin’s message — to those released Thursday and to his agents around the world — was clear: Even if you get caught, the Kremlin is with you.

A total of 24 people were released in Thursday’s exchange – 16 to the West and eight to Russia – in the biggest prisoner swap deal since the Cold War.

Russia released American journalists Ivan Gershkovich and Alsou Kurmasheva, former Marine Paul Whelan, as well as high-profile domestic dissidents.

In turn, this led to the release of the largest number of alleged Russian spies in one go in more than a decade, as well as the freeing of FSB security service assassin Vadim Krasikov.

“For the target audience, Putin brought back his soldiers, who were heroes of the Third World War,” said Russian political analyst Konstantin Kalachev.

“And the audience is not just the special services, but millions of people who feel like citizens of a country that is at war with a powerful enemy,” he added.

Those returned to Russia included two secret agents living in Slovenia on false documents, a notorious hacker, and an alleged Russian colonel living as a Brazilian researcher in Norway.

The main prize for Putin was Krasikov – an elite FSB officer arrested in Germany in 2019 for the murder of a former Chechen separatist, which Berlin said was ordered by Moscow.

Putin, who was previously the director of the FSB and a KGB officer in the Soviet Union, had long been pushing to include Krasikov in a prisoner swap deal, an idea opposed by Germany.

Abbas Galliamov, an independent political analyst and former Kremlin speechwriter, said the agreement would “increase loyalty” among other spies and assassins.

“Putin can rely on them to work with greater dedication,” he said.

‘Win-Win’

For Western countries, the exchange has raised fears that Putin may become even more daring to take prisoners as part of “hostage diplomacy.”

The Kremlin said on Friday it was determined to secure the release of more Russian citizens it believes are wrongly imprisoned in the West.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said that for the past two years Russia has been “openly” detaining Western citizens for a possible swap since the Ukraine invasion stalled talks with the West.

There is a long history of swaps between Russia and the West, including the replacement of US basketball star Brittney Griner with Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout in 2022.

But by including not only foreigners but also Russian dissidents in Thursday’s agreement, Moscow “reminded the whole world of its repression, lawlessness and brutality against critics of the authorities,” Stanovaya said in an article.

Before the 2022 agreements to release first US Marine Trevor Reed and then Griner, deals typically involved swapping spies for spies.

Moscow has also attempted to present the agreement in a similar way.

Both Gershkovitch and Whelan were convicted of “espionage” — charges the White House dismissed as baseless — and the FSB said Thursday that the Russians it had released had “acted in the interests of foreign states while harming Russia’s security.”

But for the West, Gershkovitch’s arrest in particular — the first “spying” charges leveled against an American journalist in Russia since the Cold War — showed the Kremlin was willing to cross red lines.

Political analyst Ekaterina Shulman said in an interview with Russian independent TV Rain that Russia could view the exchange as a major success and a “wonderful victory.”

But the reality was much harsher than this.

He said, “Russia is getting eight clueless guys who couldn’t do their job and got caught.”

“Whereas it is giving people who can, if they wish and are able, become important political public figures.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

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