Qatar’s suspension of its key mediation between Israel and Hamas has dashed long-held hopes for a ceasefire in the Gaza war and a hostage release deal.
The wealthy Gulf country hosts the largest US base in the Middle East and Hamas’s political office, and has played a key role in indirect talks since the October 7 attack on Israel that led to the war.
The talks offered the only hope for freeing Israeli hostages held by Hamas and ending a war that has killed 43,603 people in Gaza, according to a health ministry toll in the Hamas-run territory.
But Qatar announced last week that it had halted its mediation until Israel and Hamas show “willingness and seriousness” to end the conflict.
– Where does the conversation stop? ,
Since a week-long pause in fighting last year, when several hostages were released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, successive rounds of talks have made no progress.
This month, Hamas rejected a short-term ceasefire proposal from Egypt and Qatar because it did not offer a permanent ceasefire.
Israel has repeatedly vowed that it will not stop fighting until it achieves its war objectives – crushing Hamas and bringing the hostages home.
While Egypt borders Gaza and the United States is Israel’s main supporter, Qatar’s role in the negotiations was unique as it was the only player able to claim neutral ground.
It has mediated in several international crises in Ukraine, Syria and Afghanistan.
Gaza talks need a broker, and “I can’t see how that would be anyone else,” says Andreas Craig, a senior lecturer at King’s College London.
“The talks are now at a stage where there is no longer any negotiation process,” he said.
Hamas has been weakened by the assassinations of leaders Yahya Sinwar in October and Ismail Haniyeh in July, he said, to such an extent that it is unclear “how you maintain the negotiation process with all the main negotiators dead”.
“Hamas thinks they have already agreed to the US ceasefire plan for the summer,” said Anna Jacobs, a Gulf analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank.
But that proposal was never agreed upon.
Jacobs said Hamas feels Israel is “damaging the negotiations by constantly adding new conditions”, including maintaining a military presence in Gaza.
– Can Hamas leave Qatar? ,
Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majid al-Ansari on Saturday denied reports that Hamas would be expelled from the country.
“The main goal of the (Hamas) office in Qatar is to be a medium of communication”, Ansari said, adding that it had “contributed to achieving the ceasefire in previous stages”.
A senior Hamas official told AFP the group had received no indication from Qatar that it should leave.
Earlier, a diplomatic source told AFP that the Hamas office was “no longer serving its purpose” after Qatar withdrew from its mediation role.
Given Hamas and Qatari denials, Jacobs said that “it is unlikely that there will be a massive public closure of the Hamas office and ousting of the leadership.”
Qatar delivered a similar message to Hamas in April, causing several members of the group to leave for Turkey – only to return two weeks later at the request of the United States and Israel, when negotiations proved impractical.
Craig said it appeared that Hamas was now in an “unstable” state and that calls for ouster were increasing “probably within a matter of weeks”, with the most likely destination being Iran.
Craig said Turkey has been offered as the new host, but would not want to offend the United States, a NATO member.
According to Jacobs, it is possible that Hamas officials will remain out of Doha until the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump on January 20, “until more serious negotiations can resume”.
– Will Qatar bow forever? ,
Qatar had already signaled its unhappiness in April when it said it was re-evaluating its mediating role.
But it has indicated its willingness to return to the table when circumstances permit.
Craig said, “This is primarily about … signaling to the world that we are mediating, we are happy to continue doing that, but we are also prepared to put our full weight, all influence, on Hamas Are.”
Jacobs said Qatar’s relations with Hamas have come under increased scrutiny from US policymakers, particularly Republicans in Congress.
“It makes sense that they’re trying to protect themselves and address any weaknesses that could be attacked by Trump and a potentially Republican-controlled Congress,” he said.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
