Apple’s 40-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index fell to 0.21 last week, the lowest since 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Its correlation with the benchmark has been falling since May, when it peaked at 0.92, as Apple’s decision to largely stay out of the AI arms race has left it behind many of its rivals. A correlation of 1 means that the two securities are moving in perfect unison, while a reading of -1 signals that they are moving against each other.
B. “Apple’s lack of correlation is 100% positive right now,” said Art Hogan, who helps oversee $25 billion as chief market strategist at Riley Wealth. “We’re in an AI whack-a-mole environment, where investors are more nervous about shooting first and asking questions later.”
ETMarkets.comFor more than a month, investors have found themselves in an AI-fueled “doom loop,” flip-flopping between worries that the hundreds of billions of dollars spent on AI won’t pay off and that industries from software to wealth management and logistics will be rendered obsolete by the same technology.
Apple, meanwhile, doesn’t fit the bill on either side of that anger. The iPhone maker isn’t participating in a capex spending bonanza and doesn’t have any major business lines that would be threatened by the likes of Anthropic PBC’s cloud tools. While Apple has faced challenges integrating AI into its products, the company is said to be accelerating the development of three AI-powered hardware devices.
The results announced last month also underlined some positive trends at the company. It reported record quarterly sales – with significant strength in its key iPhone product line – and a better-than-expected outlook for the current quarter. The company will be holding a product launch event in a few weeks.
Apple’s decoupling from its tech peers was on full display Tuesday, when its 3.2% gain easily outpaced the 0.1% drop in the Nasdaq 100 index. It marked the third time this month that the stock has bested the gauge by at least 3 percentage points, including a February 4 drubbing that was its best in a year.
The stock is up 1.7% for the month of February, on track for its worst monthly performance since March, compared with a 3.3% decline in the Nasdaq 100 and a 7.5% decline for the Magnificent Seven index.
“It may have less room to grow on a tech rebound, but I don’t think it’s a sell, because it’s at the top of the list of companies that seem insulated from AI,” Hogan said.
Still, the stock has experienced its fair share of volatility — including last week’s 8% drop, the biggest since April. Its 5% tumble on Thursday was the worst since April’s tariff-fueled selloff and came a day after Bloomberg News reported that the company’s long-planned upgrade to the Siri virtual assistant may be delayed.
Skyrocketing prices for memory chips have also become a growing headache, especially as Apple’s growth lags other names within tech. Analysts expect its revenue to grow 11% for the fiscal year ending in September before slowing to a 6.7% pace in fiscal 2027. Earnings are also expected to slow next year, according to forecast data compiled by Bloomberg.
That relatively mild profit growth estimate has the stock trading at about 30 times estimated earnings over the next year, higher than every Magnificent Seven peer outside of Tesla Inc. and well above the 24 level where the Nasdaq 100 trades.
“Apple is not a bargain and hasn’t been for some time, and there’s no real growth relative to the rest of tech,” said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at Phoenix Financial Services. “However, I think the market will continue to give him the benefit of the doubt.”
“There’s a lot less risk for hardware than for software,” Kaufman added. “And regardless of anything else, it’s not like people can use AI to code themselves a new iPhone.”
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