US GDP Below 0.2%, are we looking at the initial signs of a policy -induced tax risk according to you?
Arnab Das: See, there is an element. What happened to GDP growth in the first quarter was a significant increase in imports that dragged down the arithmetically growth.
But it’s not a very useful sign. The big point is that we have many policy uncertainty that went to the first quarter but actually came up with all the instability around the tariff in the first week of Liberation Day and April which is after the Q1 GDP report period.
Therefore, we have to see the full effect of all the uncertainty of the trade policy and all the uncertainty to the culture war. The Trump Administration is taking in many things against American organizations and the way they want to change.
Subsequently, from the extreme layers of tariffs declared against China and the full blow of reciprocal tariffs that moved to a baseline of 10%very quickly, some uncertainty has been reduced. And now we have interfered with another legal intervention last night, through which the U.S. The court has declared Trump’s so -called AIPA act illegal.
Therefore, it will probably delay the onset of clarity on the Trade Business War, but, perhaps the harmful effects of tariffs and trade war are at least to some extent as markets as we stabilize. At the top, we have these financial problems that you were just discussing. If you look at the markets, what you are looking at is in the 10-year bond range, Dollar is slightly weak in the lap, maybe the dollar is weakening significantly, and even though the stocks are down, rarely.
One way the big issue is that other currencies other than Dollar Ler are doing well, including some emerging market currency and other equity, including some emerging market equity. Therefore, we have a kind of soft dolar lur, left in the rest of the world’s atmosphere. I think it is partly because because it is normal and natural or when the dollar is weak, we use it. One part of this is that if you like the right, the partisans of the house have increased, investors are pulling money from the US and they are putting it at home at home even if they are in the euro zone or in Japan or in some emerging market countries.
And so, we are looking at some expectations of global development regeneration, there may be less dependence on US growth. Of course, there are still early days and still there are many uncertainty, but it seems to be a normal direction of travel. US Slowing down. If the trade war increases again, it will probably slow down. There is a lot of uncertainty that will choose some of the investment and customers, especially on durable, and to some extent the rest of the world, but maybe not all sluggish. Therefore, it is probably a little more in the challenging growth atmosphere, but not terrible and that’s what you are watching playing in the markets.
Given what Satisfaction says, it also looks great in terms of the way. How do you interpret the government costs, strategic cuts in your opinion or is it a concern for future development?
Arnab Das: Look, I think a time when there was a lot of effect by doginment effective to cut spending in various ways and some of those ways of spending cuts While, some of them are being challenged as to their legality, and some of them has been sort of revised away if not aeure to make all the cuts in personnel or in spending Musk at the time had intended and so i think that is why we flipped a little over the last few weeks with real fears and concerns of real fears and focus, almost completely flipping on the issue of trade, as we got this a big beautiful bill, which could not be significant at the current rate of 6.5-7% of the GDP. That I was clearly moving in the GDP. And offer other efforts to help bring the budget closer.
I think where we are now that the market is digesting that the 10-year bond yields in the US The turn has come to a very long end of the curve from 10 years to 30 years, and in the rest of the world it is said that Japan is included, however, it has a big budget, this is a high budget loss in the world’s highest sense, a high debt, so in the world, there is a high savings in the world. And the so -called word premium is therefore the U.S. There are these challenges, similar and other challenges in other parts of the world.
Therefore, I agree that it won’t get worse. I don’t know if I will be fully booming that there are still many uncertainties and we need to recognize that the trade war, though it is still restricted by Trump’s own pullback and now the court’s rulings, is still.
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