US President Donald Trump has indicated possible complications for Russian oil trade until Moscow soon reaches an agreement on Ukraine conflict. On Sunday, the US leader threatened to levy 25–50 percent of the Russian oil buyers to levy secondary tariffs as Moscow is blocking his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
“If Russia and I am unable to make a deal to prevent bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault … I am going to put a secondary tariff on oil on all oils coming out of Russia … then it will be, if you buy oil from Russia, you will have a 25% tariff in the United States.
The possibility of new American restrictions on Russian energy companies lead to the risk of inflation in developing economies as oil prices rise to unprecedented levels. This especially creates an concern for India because Moscow is one of the largest crude oil suppliers in New Delhi.
According to data from the Commodity Market Analytics firm KPler, India’s crude oil imports crossed 5 million barrels (BPD) per day in March 2025, which is the highest monthly in 15 years. If this, about 30 percent of it is imported from Russia.
India’s crude oil imports in March 2025 (Source: KPLER data)
- Russia: 1,864 thousand BPD
- Iraq: 920 thousand BPD
- Saudi Arabia: 565 thousand BPD
- UAE: 424 thousand BPD
- US: 289 thousand BPD
- Nigeria: 222 thousand BPD
- Kuwait: 110 thousand BPD
- Angola: 150 thousand BPD
- Brazil: 91 thousand BPD
- Ecuador: 65 thousand BPD
- Colombia: 63 thousand BPD
- Venezuela: 61 thousand BPD
- Congo: 58 thousand BPD
- Qatar: 36 thousand BPD
- Ghana: 34 thousand BPD
- Oman: 33 thousand BPD
India’s dependence on Russian oil
Over the years, after the introduction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has reduced its dependence on Middle Eastern and African oil in favor of an inexpensive and abundant supply from Moscow. Refiners have enjoyed huge profits due to cheap supply. In fact, despite the restrictions imposed by the outgoing biden administration on Russian oil institutions in the US, crude oil imports from Moscow to New Delhi reached eight months high in March.
According to KPLER data, India’s Russian raw colored imports increased to about 1.9 million barrels (BPD) per day in March-480 thousand BPD month-by-month and 300 thousand BPD year-to-year growth. In February, India imported 1.47 million barrels of crude oil from Russia.
Trump’s threat and oil prices
Trump’s remarks carried forward benchmark futures, with West Texas Intermediate on Monday an increase by 3.1 percent, the biggest advantage in about 11 weeks. Prices slipped slightly on Tuesday, but remained stable in thin trade on Wednesday. Brent futures were unchanged at $ 74.49 per barrel after slipping 0.4 percent on Tuesday. The US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 3 cents to $ 71.23 after leaving 0.4 percent.
What happens if America moves forward with its danger?
According to a Bloomberg report, the US is India’s top trading partner, so under a landscape of “Secondary Tariff” for Russian oil buyers, India’s oil supply is likely to be adversely affected and New Delhi may have to look for an alternative supply.
“Traditional sanctions have created enough uncertainty,” the report stated that Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Gop NV in Singapore, said.
He said, “The idea of the secondary tariff only intensifies this uncertainty, given that it is a new tool. Buyers need to decide whether the benefits of releasing the potentially on their economy with additional tariffs,” he said.
With Trump’s danger, the Indian refiners have moved to the market to search for raw supply. Bloomberg’s report states that Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp, owned by the state, are demanding additional supply from areas such as the Middle East, North Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.
The report stated that such quick demand for non-Russian cargo is likely to emerge that India’s ability to achieve all barrel refiners that were previously purchased from Moscow.
India’s strategy
Eager to import cheap crude from Russia, the oil refiner in India is working with traders, ships and other middlemen to rebuild supply chain after restrictions. Last month, Bloomberg reported that the Indian refiners were re -configuring with institutions, tankers and insurance providers selling the existing network who are not on Washington’s blacklist.
India is actively diversity in its raw sources by increasing imports from other countries including Angola, Brazil and West African to reduce dependence on Russian oil. While the imports of New Delhi’s Russian barrels increased, Indian refiners imported two-thirds of American crude in March compared to February.
According to KPLER data, India imported 289,000 barrels of American crude per day from 146,000 BPD in February.
Experts believe that India’s strategy to diversify oil supply can help protect against any effect.
Vandana Hari, the founder of Wanda Insights in Singapore, told Bloomberg, “The big question is whether these shocks will repeatedly reduce Indian hunger structurally for Russian crude? I have my doubt, as long as economics works,” Vandana Hari, the founder of Wanda Insight in Singapore, told Bloomberg.
“This is a bluff, a bargaining trick from Trump.
