Trump has left economists connecting points, and it does not paint the pink picture

After taking over as president for the second tenure of the United States, Trump has imposed a tariff, no holding has been banned. It starts against the US largest trade partners or accelerates the opposition to China, or by threatening the European Union and other economy, including India, Trump seems to be eye -catching tariffs in the surrounding countries and areas.

What is more concerned, these tariffs have been imposed, paused, returned, and clear smoke. Uncertainty has been more harmful to the business and the economic environment, which is higher than the tariff.

Economists are left connecting points

Given their eccentric and surgical nature, the role of the tariff as a trade trick can all be ruled out. It may aim to promote political negotiations, but it may seem very extreme.

Economists are speculating that Trump’s agenda is more sensitive. That its policies are chaotic by design, and it aims to weaken the US Dollar Lord. The safe haven currency, if weakened, will accelerate the production by making exports more competitive. The USD praised Trump’s president in anticipation, and has left all the benefits within 2 months of his tenure.

Trump has been excited by the elasticity displayed by the US economy in recent years. Receiving immediately after the epidemic, the US economy is steadily increasing despite the 40 -year high inflation, facing the most aggressive financial and stubborn geographical political conflicts in decades.

The catastrophic consequences of drastic changes may occur

But not to play with the spirit of customers. Any drastic changes implemented suddenly can produce catastrophic consequences. Suddenly policy-change can strip customers’ spirit. And if the customer’s spirit decreases sharply, it will no longer follow the principles of economics. No dose of financial or financial stimuli can carry out pessimism.

It may also take years and decades to receive the spirit again. For example, Japan’s “lost decades.” Asset-Price bubbles tied to aggressive credit, Japan’s Central Bank increased its policy rate from 2.5% to 4.25% in a single sweeping tourism in December 1989. Then there was a sharp yen depreciation, deflation and a flat economy for 3 decades. Even the negative interest rate could not accelerate the customer’s spirit in the country.

Recently, after the government’s aggressive dispute over the growing real estate debt in 2021, the lesson should be taken from China’s puzzle, the consumer spirit has come down to the dump. Since then the government has been announcing excitement after excitement, but the pessimistic consumer spirit will not bounce.

US The sentiment was high in the back of the AI ​​boom. But despite the protectionist chip policies, the disruption of China’s Deepsik has reduced the confidence. US Any rigorous policy-change can cause more damage to consumers’ spirit and can lead to potentially catastrophic consequences.

Ananya Roy is the founder of CB-Registered Investment Advisor, Ceradibul Capital. X: @anyarycfa
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this release.