Traders placed a whopping 0 million bet on oil prices falling hours before the ceasefire

Traders placed a whopping $950 million bet on oil prices falling hours before the ceasefire

Investors bet about $950 million on falling oil prices just hours before the US and Iran announced a ceasefire, the latest big bet on the direction of the world’s most traded commodity ahead of President Donald Trump’s major policy announcement.

On Tuesday, investors sold a combined 8,600 lots of Brent and US crude futures at 1945 GMT, according to LSEG data. At around 2230 GMT on Tuesday, Trump backed away from threatening to destroy “an entire civilization” and announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, knocking crude futures down nearly 15% to $100 a barrel at the start of Wednesday’s official trading session.

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On 08 April 2026, 11:16 PM IST

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It is not uncommon to take large positions when oil prices rise or fall because traders use them to hedge large volumes of physical oil trades.

But such trades are rarely made in large lots, as traders prefer to use sweeping orders across multiple exchanges and ask brokers to use algorithmic trading for several hours to execute orders to avoid affecting prices with their bets. Even larger orders are rarely executed after settlement, which takes place Monday through Friday at 1830 GMT. The bet follows a similar move on March 23, when investors sold $500 million in oil futures just 15 minutes before Trump’s announcement that he would delay an attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure, which stunned markets and sent crude prices down 15%. In Tuesday’s trading, about 6,200 lots of Brent futures changed hands at 1945 GMT, about 1% of the total volume traded in the day’s regular session, while about 2,400 lots of WTI futures traded at this time, about 1% of the day’s regular volume.

CME Group declined to comment. ICE did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.


Trading volumes and volatility have exploded since the start of the war. On average, in the three years leading up to the war, about 300,000 lots of Brent crude futures would change hands on a daily basis.

That amount has more than doubled in the past four weeks as daily volume hit a record high above 1 million lots, equivalent to one billion barrels of oil.

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