Renowned economist Christophe Baraud has predicted that Republican candidate Donald Trump will win the November 5 US presidential election. Known as “the world’s most accurate economist”, Mr Barraud’s forecast is based on a variety of metrics, including financial market signals, which he says point to a Trump-led “GOP clean sweep” on November 5.
“Looking at various metrics like speculative markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, so far, the most likely outcome is: Trump victory, GOP clean sweep,” he wrote on
, #USEllection2024 Looking at various metrics such as betting markets, surveys, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, so far, the most likely outcomes are:
1️⃣ #trump Victory
2️⃣ #GOP clean up
*Polymarket:
*Kalshi:… pic.twitter.com/RV2DlCw9Ft
— Christophe Barraud????????? (@C_Barraud) 28 October 2024
Mr. Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, has topped Bloomberg’s economic forecast rankings in 11 of the last 12 years. At 38 years old, he has maintained a remarkable track record, lending credibility to his latest predictions. According to Mr. Barraud, while the GOP will likely take control of the Senate, the House of Representatives may be a closer call, it is still leaning in favor of Republicans.
In an interview with Business Insider, Mr. Barraud suggested that with a Trump presidency and Republican control of Congress, there could be a temporary economic boost, with GDP growth projected between 2.1 percent and 2.3 percent in 2025. Yet, he also warned about potential long-term issues, including a rising federal deficit, if significant tax cuts under Trump are not offset by other revenue sources.
According to Mr. Barraud, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds could rise to 4.5 percent immediately after Trump’s victory, potentially reaching 5 percent if the administration’s policies come to fruition. They also predict that under the Trump administration, US GDP could exceed consensus forecasts, projecting growth of 2.6 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025.
Regardless of the election outcome, Mr Barraud suggested the economy could continue to perform well in the near term. However, he said a divided Congress would likely block many of Trump’s proposed domestic policies, shifting his focus toward tariffs — an approach that Mr. Barraud believes would hurt long-term U.S. and global economic growth. Can slow down.
Earlier, well-known statistician Nate Silver, who has successfully predicted five US presidential elections, had hinted at a possible victory for Trump in the tight race against Kamala Harris. Mr Silver revealed that his “gut feeling” is leaning towards Trump, giving the former president a 53.1 percent chance of winning a second term. However, he cautioned against relying too much on intuition.
Last month, Alan Lichtman, known as the “Nostradamus” of US elections for accurately predicting nine out of the last ten presidential outcomes, believes Kamala Harris will win the upcoming election. Using his “Keys to the White House” model, which evaluates 13 factors about the strength of the incumbent party, Mr. Lichtman concluded that Harris has the lead on eight “keys” while Trump has three. .
