In a joint interview by The Indicator of Planet Money podcast, the pair were asked to provide their economic assessments using a four-color scheme, from “house is on fire” red to “everything’s booming” green.
“At least orange. Orange with a chance of a meatball; it’s not great,” Goolsby said of inflation projections amid rising gasoline prices. “I was optimistic that we’d get back on this path of 2% inflation, but hey, it’s been orange to red lately — we’ve had tariff hikes that were supposed to go away, that didn’t go away, and now we add another inflationary shock on top…. It’s a troubling moment.”
Hammack is also troubled by inflation, which she notes has been running above target for five years and has “basically gone sideways” for the past two. “It’s definitely on a brighter, more vibrant color orange: I don’t know if it’s burnt orange, burnt sienna: my Crayola box is a little old.”
The interview was taped Wednesday, two days after the Labor Department’s March jobs report showed the largest monthly payrolls gain since Donald Trump began his second presidential term last January. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, mainly because a large number of workers left the labor force.
“To me, the best indicator is really the unemployment rate,” Hammock said, and that’s currently where she estimates full employment should be. While it’s a “delicate kind of balance,” her view is yellow to green — maybe chartreuse, she said, “or actually it’s more like Diet Mountain Dew” than the one favored by one of her fellow Fed policymakers at the rate-setting table.
Meanwhile, the financial system — despite stock market losses since the start of the Iran war — is “generally green” and the economy is in a good place from a financial stability standpoint, Hamek said.
Goolsby was more cautious on both fronts, giving the labor market a “yellow” rating because its low-hiring, low-firing conditions, in her mind, were largely explained by continued uncertainty.
As for the financial system, he said, he is happy with the payment system but is “a bit more worried” about asset prices. “It looks like there are a lot of cracks,” he said, and it’s not clear whether it’s productivity-driven or a bubble waiting to pop.
“Maybe it’s yellow? You’ll never hear me say the word ‘chartreuse,'” he said.
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