From Ronald Reagan’s re-election win amid an economic recession to Bill Clinton’s victory against George H.W. Bush, Allan Lichtman, known as the ‘Nostradamus’ of US presidential elections, has correctly predicted key electoral contests in the country. Now, the expert has revealed who should be the vice-presidential running mate for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, according to a report. Newsweek,
“I don’t think the vice president selection can change the election, but the vice president selection is incredibly important,” Mr Lichtman said during a YouTube livestream. “I think all of the names that have been vetted are qualified. In my view, it’s narrowed down to two,” he said.
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro were recognized as favorable choices by the historian, who has accurately predicted the outcomes of nine of the last ten elections.
Speaking to the outlet, Mr Lichtman said Mr Shapiro was a “good choice” because he was “excellently qualified”. “(He is) popular in a significant segment of the country, popular overall, and excellently qualified. The most important thing is, would you trust this person to become president if, God forbid, this were to happen? And of course, that has happened often in American history,” he told Newsweek. Notably, nine vice presidents have become president after US presidents died or resigned.
Mr. Lichtman added, “Picking someone from a particular state is not a guarantee that you will win that state, but if you want to reach a particular state, Pennsylvania is the most important state in this election.”
Allan Lichtman said Ms Harris should pick a candidate who can help her win in a large region like Pennsylvania because it has 19 electoral college votes. Since Harry Truman in 1948, no Democratic contender has won the election without the Keystone State. “Of all the swing states, it has the most electoral votes, and Democrats can’t really win without winning Pennsylvania. I’m not saying that picking Josh Shapiro will win Pennsylvania. There’s no evidence of that, but if the purpose of that is to try to pick someone who can help you win a state, you might want to pick Pennsylvania,” he said.
Notably, Mr Lichtman currently prefers Democratic US Vice President Kamala Harris over her Republican rival Donald Trump. He expressed his opinion to News Nation, saying that “a lot has to go wrong for Harris to lose.”
He predicted that Democrats currently have six of the 13 key issues at stake. These include core competitiveness, the short- and long-term economy, policy change, the absence of controversy, and the charisma of the challenger.
“Right now, Democrats lose three important things by going with Harris,” he told NewsNation.
The expert claimed that the Democrats’ significant defeat in the 2022 midterm elections cost them the “party mandate”. He added that Ms Harris no longer holds the keys to “power” and “charisma”.
However, to predict Harris’ defeat, Democrats would have to lose three additional seats, according to their forecasting model. However, they say that is unlikely to happen.
Historians will make official predictions for the 2024 White House race after the Democratic convention in August.
