To understand the secondary tariff
Secondary tariffs are disciplinary measures that are not directly imposed on Russia, but against third-party countries that are busy with Russia-in-oil, gas and uranium. The proposed tariff AS can be up to 500%, targeting the imports of countries that the US Violates restrictions. This strategy is designed to be financially distinguished by Russia’s partners, but it risks collateral damage on the global supply chain.
Global oil production and consumption landscape
Until mid -2025, global oil production is about 101 million barrels (BPD) per day, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), consumption closely with 100.5 million BPD. The top manufacturers include the United States (12.9 million BPD), Saudi Arabia (10.5 million BPD) and Russia (9.8 million BPD). Russia is a crucial supplier, especially parts of China, India and Eastern Europe, which has increased imports after the Ukraine war began.
If Russian oil flow was completely banned, it would be extremely challenging for global markets to change its supply as it contributes about 10% of the global supply. Even in the optimistic scenario, the world- Million can change a million BPD, which is a lack of million BPD- Million.
Living events
Potential market effect
If secondary tariffs are applied, they will accelerate potential prices, global inflation, energy ration in the sensitive economy and investment in renewable ENERGY and gas markets.
Indirectly restricting Russian oil by its buyers can reduce global supply, especially if big importers like India and China are faced with pressure to cut. The shock of this supply can push the Asian Brent crude prices to excessive s.
Countries based on Russian oil, Middle East and U.S. Increase in demand for oil can be strayed for options. This can strain the current production capacity and especially lead to a shortage of regional energy in Asia and Eastern Europe.
Geographical political disruption
Meanwhile, proposed tariffs are not just economic equipment – they are geographical political weapons. If President Trump applies this tariff to China and India – Russia’s largest ENERGY can face two – significant economic and strategic challenges of consumers. This tariff will not only increase the cost of imports, but the US. He will also stress diplomatic relations, forcing the two countries to revive their ENERGY and trade policies.
However, in such a tariff tariff environment, China and India may adopt a multilateral strategic approach as a US response. Both countries can accelerate deals with central eastern supply and find new suppliers from Africa and Latin America. China can accelerate yuan -based trade to bypass Dollar Lur based restrictions. In addition, diplomatic measures, an increase in renewable investments and increase in local production can also be gradually expected.
President Trump’s proposed secondary tariff represents high gambling gambling. When they aim to push Russia into peace negotiations, global reactions can be serious – inflation, disrupting ENERGY zoning markets and resurning geographical political connections. As the world sees, the decision can mark a turn in both the Ukraine conflict and the fate of global energy diplomacy.
(Author Harish V is Head of Commodity Research, GeoGit Invests. Views are his own)
(Connection: The recommendations, suggestions, views and views of the experts are their own. This does not represent opinions of economic time)
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