Recent satellite images have revealed that two of Iran’s key ballistic missile facilities are undergoing a massive expansion that two US researchers assess is aimed at boosting missile production, a conclusion confirmed by three senior Iranian officials.
The expansion of these sites follows an October 2022 deal in which Iran agreed to supply missiles to Russia, which is seeking them for its war against Ukraine. According to US officials, Tehran also supplies missiles to Yemen’s Houthi rebels and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, both members of the Iran-backed axis of resistance against Israel.
Images taken by commercial satellite firm Planet Labs of the Modarres military base in March and the Khojir missile production complex in April show more than 30 new buildings at the two sites, both located near Tehran.
Photos reviewed by Reuters show many structures are surrounded by large earthen berms. Such earthworks are associated with missile production and are designed to prevent an explosion in one building from igniting highly flammable materials in nearby structures, said Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey.
Based on images of the sites, Lewis said expansion work at Khojir began in August last year and at Modares in October.
Experts say Iran’s arsenal is already the largest in the Middle East, with an estimated more than 3,000 missiles, including models designed to carry conventional and nuclear warheads.
Three Iranian officials, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, confirmed that Modarres and Khojir are being expanded to boost the production of conventional ballistic missiles.
“Why shouldn’t we do this?” one official said.
A second Iranian official said some of the new buildings would also help double drone production. Drone and missile parts would be sold to Russia, the drones to the Houthis and the missiles to Hezbollah, the source said.
Reuters was unable to independently confirm the comments by Iranian officials.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not respond to a Reuters request for comment on the expansion of the complexes. Tehran has previously denied providing drones and missiles to Russia and the Houthis. Hezbollah’s media office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Houthi spokesman Mohammad Abdulsalam said Iran’s increased weapons production would have no impact on Yemen because the Houthis develop and manufacture aircraft independently of Iran.
Lewis analyzed the Planet Labs images with Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at the Washington thinktank CNA, as part of a Middlebury project that monitors Iranian missile infrastructure.
“We know that Russia is looking for low-cost missile capabilities, and that’s already extended to Iran and North Korea,” Lewis said.
Moscow and Pyongyang have denied handing over North Korean missiles to Russia. The Russian embassy in Washington and North Korea’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment for this story.
The two U.S. researchers said in separate interviews that it was unclear from the photographs what types of missiles would be produced at the new facilities, which appear to be still under construction.
Any increase in Tehran’s missile or drone production would be worrying for the United States, which has said Iranian drones help sustain Russia’s assault on Ukrainian cities, and for Israel, as it fears attacks by Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah.
The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the researchers’ analysis.
A US National Security Council spokesman declined to confirm his assessment, saying the United States had imposed a variety of measures, including sanctions, aimed at disrupting Iranian missile and drone production and exports.
In February Reuters reported that Iran had sent surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. Iran denied sending the weapons. Washington said it could not confirm the transfer but believed Tehran intended to deliver the missiles to Moscow.
New buildings, earthen berms
Shahid Modares and Khojir are supervised by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary organization that plays a central role in Iran’s missile and nuclear programs. It controls large parts of the Iranian economy and answers directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
These complexes have long been associated with the development and production of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and rockets for Iran’s space program.
On November 12, 2011, a massive explosion destroyed a large part of the Shedid Modares facility housing solid fuel missiles, killing 17 IRGC officers. These included General Hassan Moqaddam, whom Iran considers the “architect” of its ballistic missile program.
A second Iranian official said construction at Shahid Modarres resumed after the 2011 explosion, and accelerated last year.
“I think the Iranians may have decided not to put berms on the buildings before the explosion because they didn’t want to draw attention to them,” Lewis said. “They learned the hard way.”
Eveleth and Lewis said the sites have a long history with Iran’s missile program — some experts consider Shahid Modares to be its birthplace — and the numerous earthen mounds there support their assessment that Tehran is expanding ballistic missile production.
“When we see basically an entire production line bermed like this, it’s usually missiles,” Eveleth said.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
