RIL shares fell 8% in 2026. Should you buy before Q3 results on Friday?

Shares of Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries fell as much as 1.6% in afternoon trade today (January 12) to Rs. The stock hit an intraday low of 1,451, extending the stock’s weak run so far in 2026, during which it has already fallen 8%. The oil-to-telecom conglomerate will announce its December-quarter (Q3FY26) results on January 16.

Should you buy, sell or hold ahead of earnings?

On January 9, Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month price target on Reliance Industries to Rs. 1,835 per share, representing about 25% upside from current levels. The brokerage reiterated its buy rating, arguing that the near-term moder in retail will be offset by improving refining fundamentals and steady momentum in telecom, keeping Reliance’s medium-term earnings trajectory intact.

Brokerages expect Q3 earnings growth in retail due to weaker discretionary spending, base effects and the festive season. However, this is likely to be partly offset by strong refining-led performance in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business. As a result, overall earnings remain largely unchanged despite changes at the segment level.

Nomura estimates Reliance Industries’ consolidated EBITDA for 3QFY26F at Rs. 47,600 crore, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4%. While the refining segment is expected to deliver a strong performance, this may be partially offset by weaker petrochemical margins and muted performance in the retail trade. Meanwhile, Jio is likely to report stable operating performance during the quarter. Analysts have a buy call and Rs. 1,700 is the target price.

In the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) segment, EBITDA stood at Rs. 16,500 crore, up 10% QoQ, expanding refining margins. Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel spreads are expected to improve through sequential gains, though softer petrochemical margins may partially temper the overall upside.

For the upstream business, Nomura has invested Rs. 4,900 crore forecast EBITDA, down 1% quarter-on-quarter. While lower volumes and softer average selling prices may weigh on performance, these headwinds are expected to be largely offset by favorable foreign exchange movements.

On the consumer side, retail operations are likely to witness a soft quarter, reflecting a macro-based slowdown in discretionary consumption. In contrast, Jio’s performance is expected to remain resilient. Nomura pegged Jio’s EBITDA at Rs. 17,600 crore, up 2% in Q3 from Rs. 211 to Rs. 8 million sequential increase in ARPU per month from 214 to support 515 million.

Shares of Reliance Industries have rallied around 8% in the last few trading sessions after outperforming the Sensex, Nifty and sector peers over the past year. Analysts attributed the recent pullback to the company’s exposure to Russian crude and investor concerns over a slowdown in the pace of retail growth. However, Goldman Sachs believes these concerns are overblown and expects a limited impact on Reliance’s medium-term earnings estimates.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, opinions and views given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times.)