ET Now: Give us a quick sense of the market moves that you have seen today as we have really struggled every day on an intraday basis to touch that 25,000 mark, there have been days in the week where we have crossed that mark but we have. Managed to close below 25,000 most days this week. Let us know what levels you are watching for the Nifty and how you expect the markets to behave in the coming week, especially now that the earnings season is in full swing from next week.
Rajesh Palvia: So, during the week we have seen that both the indices were in a volatile state and almost we have closed this week on a flat note compared to the previous week. But looking at the data setup, the main call put concentration is held at around 25,000 level for Nifty only and we have almost closed around that level. So, over the course of the week we’ve seen major call writers aggressive at the 25,000, 25,100-25,200 strikes so that acts as a key supply zone for any pullback that we’ve seen. But looking at the overall situation, the way Nifty has recovered from recent lows of 24,700, we believe that, yes, there is a possibility that we may see follow-up buying action in the coming week and Nifty may try to cross 25,150. , it is an immediate supply zone based on technical. So, if Nifty crosses above 25,150, there will be short covering action on derivative front and then rally may extend to 25,300 to 25,350 zone, but on lower side major support is placed at 24,850 which needs to hold. As stop loss who are currently buying Nifty. A key supply zone for Bank Nifty is placed at around 51,600. But even if we analyze most of the components for Bank Nifty, very few pockets show traction, so strength is still absent for most of the largecap banks in Bank Nifty components. Hence, Bank Nifty may struggle to cross 51,600 which is an immediate supply zone on the higher side. If it gets crossed at all, then yes, there will be another short covering action that will take Bank Nifty higher towards 52,000 or 52,200 but that seems unlikely in the near term. Maybe we can see a bit more consolidation in the range of 50,700 to 51,600 in Bank Nifty, this could be the possible consolidation that we can see in Bank Nifty. But Nifty seems to give a breakout above 25,150. Therefore, one can consider buying Nifty instead of Bank Nifty for near term trading perspective.
ET Now: I remember we’ve had this conversation before, but this sector, actually, the moves we’ve seen are worth revisiting and I’m talking about the entire FMCG space because FMCG has been the top loser this week. And we saw some recovery in FMCG while the commentary from players was positive that the rural recovery has started. What is your sense for the sector as a whole moving forward, given that we have some significant Nifty FMCG earnings ahead as well. week? And if it were up to you, how would you play the field?
Rajesh Palvia: Hence, most of the FMCG stocks have attracted supply pressure from higher levels and if we analyze on a near-term perspective, most of the stocks have now slipped below their near-term moving averages, adding weakness to the near-term stocks. – Term structure. I think very few pockets in FMCG are trying to hold ground at higher levels. But most stocks of FMCG companies like Dabur, Britannia, Nestlé have slipped below their near-term support area. So, we believe there will be some more consolidation or some supply pressure for FMCG next week, so maybe any small pullback in this space should be used as a shorting opportunity as the structure is looking weak and also looking at the derivative data. . We believe that most stocks may fall further below current levels as they have attracted short build-up. So, I think some pockets like Indiamart or stocks like United Spirit, these stocks can be looked at because the structure here is still bullish, but rest of the other stocks like HUL, Dabur, Britannia, Nestlé, all stocks are still weak. shows. On a near-term to short-term basis.
ET Now: Now, what we have seen is FII’s long position on index futures. It is on a steady decline. It has been shrinking in size for a long time by more than 60%. It has now come down to about 30%, 30-32 odd percent. But at the same time, DIIs are providing good support and we have seen the kind of selling done by FIIs and almost the same quantum of buying done by DIIs. But then broadly, what do you see? What do you get from the index from here because we have been hovering around 25,000 for several days. Are we headed for more consolidation next week?
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Rajesh Palvia: So, we believe that this time, this consolidation will last longer. We can time as time consolidation, this market will have time correction activity because now earnings will be the main trigger for the market and I think the market has already corrected. Geopolitical tensions were still playing out and then there are the China issues. Therefore, the global markets are also not supportive of the trade outlook for the short-term game to be so confident at this stage. So, Nifty may stay in broad range of 24,800 on downside and on upside, in range of 25,300 to 25,400, this may be the likely range for few more weeks and we may have mixed behavior in the market. And very selective stock specific action we can see in the market. But yes, looking at the overall situation, we believe the focus is gradually shifting towards largecaps and midcaps are still under profit booking. Hence, the main focus will shift to largecaps and a very select pocket may do well in the technical framework for sectors like pharma, chemicals, metals as well as the IT space has seen some buying action. So, all these three-four positions can be viewed from near term to short term perspective. And for Nifty, we can see consolidation for the next two weeks.
ET Now: You’ve said that there could be some sort of consolidation or perhaps a time-wise correction that’s not just for a week, maybe some time beyond this week. So, which deal would you like to recommend to our viewers this time?
Rajesh Palvia: So, I think the first thing where we are focusing, is pharma and from that space, Mankind Pharma is looking very attractive. As the stock has moved in the last two days, the stock is now back to its new all-time high trajectory. As the volume action has picked up in the last two trading sessions, we believe there is a possibility of further upside continuation here, with a possible target towards 2870 we can see from a near-term perspective. So, Mankind Pharma can be bought with a stop loss of 2760. Another stock we like from the real estate space is Oberoi Realty. This is the fourth consecutive day where the stock is forming a high-high-low, which clearly indicates that the stock is undergoing sustained buying action. In the process, the stock is now well above all of its near-term, short-term moving averages. We believe that Oberoi Realty may continue further upside and there is a possibility that the stock may give a breakout to the previous swing high. Hence, we are introducing a buy target for Oberoi Realty with a stop loss of 1875 towards 1970. And the third stock belongs to the metal space, namely National Aluminum. Here, the trend is bullish. The stock is moving in an up-sloping channel on the daily chart. The chart pattern suggests that there is a possibility of upside in the near-term perspective. Therefore, one can buy National Aluminum for a target above 238. One can keep a stop loss of 217.
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