If it weren’t so surreal, it could have been dismissed as the plot of a spy movie: A highly sophisticated ‘pager attack’, allegedly carried out by Israeli agencies, has killed dozens of people and opened a new front in the ongoing Gaza crisis. Nine people were killed and more than 2,700 injured, including civilians, when text pagers allegedly used by Hezbollah members exploded in various parts of the country. Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was also injured in the blasts.
Reports suggest that Israel had disrupted the group’s supply chains and planted explosives in more than 5,000 devices. Gold Apollo, a Taiwanese company, has denied allegations that it was the provider of the consignment. Earlier, in February, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah warned his group against using mobile phones.
More complexity needs to be dealt with
Israel has not officially taken credit for the attack. However, the incident adds another layer to a complex and covert confrontation between Israeli agencies and the Lebanese militia group as both try to avoid a full-scale confrontation.
The intent behind such an audacious attack appears to be to inflict psychological and strategic shock rather than tactical attack. The attack will join a long but notable list of Israeli operations in recent times designed primarily to expose the state’s infiltration of its enemy’s infrastructure, be it political, military or technological. Examples include the use of automated AI-assisted weapons to assassinate Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on the outskirts of Tehran in 2021, the elimination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in central Tehran a few months ago, and numerous other covert operations aimed at disrupting Iran’s nuclear program. The basic idea behind these operations, which now involve low-grade technology such as pagers, is sham, to show that the Israeli state can target its opponents at a time and place of its choice.
The cat and mouse game between Hezbollah and Israel has been on the verge of turning into a full-blown conflict for the past several months. Recently, Israel flew fighter jets over Beirut just before Nasrallah’s sermon to show strength and awareness. It is also on a mission to eliminate his immediate deputy, Fuad Shukr. Recent reports have once again indicated that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may consider removing Defense Minister Yoav Galant, who has criticized decisions taken on the war in Gaza. Despite political differences within Israel on these issues – including much public discrepancies between the civilian and military leadership – there is a consensus on targeting both Hamas and Hezbollah to secure long-term security narratives, which were considered lost after the October 7 terrorist attack.
Will Iran intervene?
As a key part of the ‘axis of resistance’, Hezbollah, backed by Iran, remains stronger than Hamas, which has seen its combat strength significantly reduced in recent months. Also, by deciding not to join Hamas after the Israeli attack in October 2023, Hezbollah managed to buy some time. There could be two lines of thinking behind this approach. First, a direct aggression against Israel in the north of the country would trigger a response from not only Israeli air power but also the US, leading to massive casualties on the ground in Lebanon, for which Hezbollah would have to be held accountable. Second, there is a lack of clarity on whether Iran would directly intervene in support of the said axis. For instance, Tehran has not yet directly responded to the killing of Haniyeh.
Thus, Hezbollah appears to prefer a more protracted response that could lead to turmoil and displacement in Israel’s north, rather than escalate into a conventional, full-scale border conflict, which it would be unable to afford.
At the same time, rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah are threatening the diplomatic paths being promoted by countries like the US to enforce a ceasefire. Israeli hostages in Gaza are still held by Hamas and Israeli military operations in response are likely to continue. Netanyahu has shown no hesitation in admitting that such a war will continue until Hamas is destroyed.
a psychological blow
Finally, both Hamas and Netanyahu have obstructed ceasefire efforts in their own ways. A political solution today would require a long-term cessation of hostilities. While Nasrallah claims his group does not want a full-blown war, the two sides are moving toward tactical exchanges. But these tactical attacks could also lead to a wider conflict.
The recent explosions have already destroyed Hezbollah’s ‘low-tech’ pager communications network, making it more difficult for the group to operate, debate and deploy troops. In the short term, if not tactically, Israel has managed to score at least a psychological victory against Hezbollah and its ilk. In the long term, things remain as uncertain as ever. It would not be surprising if the Gaza crisis and accompanying regional tensions continue until 2025.
(Kabir Taneja is a Fellow, Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation. He is the author of The ISIS Peril: The World’s Most Feared Terror Group and Its Shadow on South Asia (Penguin Viking, 2019).)
Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author
