President Joe Biden’s poor performance against his rival Donald Trump in the first presidential debate on Thursday has caused a stir on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, a CBS News/YouGov poll on Sunday showed that 72% of registered voters believe Biden does not have the mental ability to serve as president. Biden is 81 and Trump is 78, but debate watchers would have noticed that Biden made his opponent look much younger. Of more concern for the Democratic Party was that the poll indicated that 45% of registered Democrats wanted Biden to step down for another candidate.
In Europe, Biden’s poor performance, which dramatically boosted Trump’s chances of reelection, has sparked much concern about what a second Trump term could mean for Europe’s security and the future of Ukraine. One Polish news website summarized the continent’s concern: “Trump proved once again that his potential victory is bad news for NATO, Ukraine and, by extension, Poland.”
Many Europeans believe that Europe’s future is uncertain without strong US support. They fear that if Trump wins the presidential election in November, Europe’s security will not be guaranteed. Trump has said he will end the Russia-Ukraine war, and if it ends with the current situation, it could be seen as a defeat for NATO rather than Ukraine.
NATO summit at a crucial juncture
Amid this concern, leaders of the 32-member NATO alliance are meeting in Washington from July 9 to 11 to celebrate its 75th anniversary. But because of the ongoing war in Ukraine and Trump’s comments at Thursday’s debate, there won’t be much to celebrate. Trump’s views on NATO and Ukraine have cast a shadow over the summit. During the debate, Trump once again slammed European NATO members for not contributing enough to the alliance’s budget, an issue that will surely be discussed. Also, the Russian war in Ukraine will be high on the agenda, including the issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO.
One of the main reasons European leaders are apprehensive about Trump’s possible re-election is his critical stance on NATO during his presidency. He pushed for an increase in defense budgets among European NATO members. Although this led to some increases, it was often accompanied by harsh rhetoric and threats to withdraw US support. Many European countries have committed to contributing 2% of their GDP to NATO’s budget by the end of this year. The US remains the largest contributor to the alliance, contributing more than 3.5%.
The reality of NATO contributions
In his frequent complaints that Europe does not pay enough to NATO, Trump forgets a crucial point. The reality is that the US uses NATO to maintain its authority over Europe. Critics argue that the US exerts disproportionate influence within the alliance, dictating its strategic priorities and military actions, expecting Europe to follow suit. Historically, whether it was the US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan or the bombing of Libya, NATO’s European members have always supported the US.
The US stance on the Israeli war in Gaza is fully supported by Britain and many European members of NATO. Many ordinary Europeans feel that their governments’ foreign policy is subservient to the US.
Europe-wide concerns
Europe is not just threatened by Trump’s views on NATO and Ukraine – we will recall that many important international agreements and partnerships were abandoned or renegotiated during Trump’s presidency, often to the dismay of European allies. The US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, the Iran nuclear deal and various trade agreements caused significant disagreements. European leaders, who value these agreements for global stability and environmental protection, are concerned that Trump’s re-election will lead to isolationist policies and diminish America’s role in global leadership.
In February, Trump stunned the American political class by saying that he would “encourage” Russia to “do whatever it takes” to deal with NATO allies that do not spend enough on defense. The statement sparked a huge controversy, and although Trump’s popularity continued to rise, it further fueled European insecurity. Many fear that Trump’s transactional, isolationist, and disruptive governing style will challenge and possibly destroy current transatlantic relations.
Historical context and European efforts
However, Trump is not the only president to have questioned NATO’s burden on the US. President Dwight Eisenhower also believed that European countries should eventually be able to defend themselves without relying on the US, suggesting that NATO should not be a permanent solution. More recently, a Republican senator wondered when Europe would learn to stand on its own feet.
Signs of Europe’s efforts to reduce dependence on America
Trump’s potential return to the White House has prompted Europe to begin preparing for a “Trump-proof” NATO. Many optimists in Europe’s academic circles believe the continent can become an independent power in a multipolar world, arguing that Europe has the resources to defend itself. The continent has contributed more financially to Ukraine’s war effort than the US. Many European countries have begun investing in rebuilding their defense capabilities, which they have degraded since NATO took over providing protection in 1949.
In April, French President Emmanuel Macron advocated for a more independent European foreign policy, saying it was time for Europe to be more united and independent. In a speech at Sorbonne University in Paris, Macron said the continent is “too slow and lacks ambition” and that the 27-member EU needs to become a superpower, defend its borders and speak with one voice if it wants to survive and thrive.
Europe without NATO security cover may be music to the ears for Russia, but if the US leaves the alliance the continent could be plunged into chaos from internal feuds. Historically, Germany, France and Britain have often been at war, culminating in two world wars. Since then, it has been peaceful and prosperous, thanks mainly to the US.
But since Trump’s last term in power (2016-2020), the EU has been seriously working on strengthening the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP), increasing the defense budget, and increasing military cooperation among member states. Initiatives such as the European Defense Fund (EDF) and the Permanent Structured Cooperation aim to develop joint military projects and improve defense readiness. Additionally, countries such as France and Germany are advocating for a more integrated European military to ensure the continent can independently manage its security and respond to potential threats.
With Trump likely to be re-elected, the NATO summit will give Europe an opportunity to seek security guarantees, no matter who is the US president. But it would be wise to start preparing to strengthen its defence capabilities to reduce its dependence on the US. One could argue that if Trump is re-elected, this could hurt the Europeans. So instead of striving for a Trump-proof NATO, it would be more beneficial for Europe to prepare itself for a US-free NATO.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a senior London-based Indian journalist with three decades of experience in Western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author