Picture this: The current interim government in Syria led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is giving way to an elected government. Under this budding democratic dispensation, Syria rises phoenix-like from the ashes of its long, bloody civil war. Millions of Syrian refugees and internally displaced people are happily returning home; Investors are coming in large numbers; Broken infrastructure is being rebuilt; Signs of productivity and employment are breathing life into an economy that was on life support for years under the misrule of former dictator-President Bashar al-Assad.
not ideal. But certainly a promising start to the collective effort to rebuild Syria. This may be the best situation for Syria in the near future.
Now, consider the other side: HTS-led rebels, having accomplished their main mission of removing the Assad regime, have begun to explode. Factions within HTS have suddenly become involved in a cut-throat race to outdo each other amid chaos and infighting. Meanwhile, the Syrian National Army (SNA) (Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army), and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) (US-backed Kurdish-led coalition) are not only holding their ground, but also showing their strength. And is working to seize power for Damascus. Russian military bases are firmly established along the coast, Israeli forces patrol the southern shore, US forces occupy its northeastern corner and Turkey remains a strong influence and a major player. Not to be outdone, Iran is busy trying to rebuild its covert web of influence.
I fear that this could potentially be the worst that Syria will see in the coming months and years.
chess game
As 2024 draws to a close, a year that has been nothing short of an earthquake for West Asia, Syria stands at a crossroads – an uncertain, dangerous threshold where the future is frustratingly unpredictable.
The fall of the Assad dynasty’s 54-year authoritarian rule has brought a ray of hope to millions of long-suffering Syrians. But it has also thrown them straight into uncharted waters.
If you look closely, Syria appears to be a giant geopolitical chessboard, with lots of players hovering over pieces, waiting to see who dares to make the first move. For now, it’s all guesswork and a high-risk game of wait and see.
But amid Syria’s turmoil, HTS, once the al-Nusra Front, has changed its militant garb to Western-style suits, as has its leader, Abu al-Jolani – who now identifies himself by his real name Ahmed. Prefer to call from al-shara – making an effort. Political change. Western powers are taking a wait-and-see approach, still labeling HTS a terrorist group. He has laid out conditions: protect minorities, ensure a peaceful transition and perhaps earn sanctions relief. But doubt remains.
Turkey continues its game of geopolitical chess, supporting the Syrian National Army (SNA) against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which it accuses of being a PKK front. Ankara insists that the PKK, which has long been a thorn in its side, be disarmed. Meanwhile, the US and Britain supported the SDF for its role in defeating Islamic State militants. – While all the time trying to reduce Türkiye’s security concerns. HTS, for its part, plays the role of diplomat, subtly supporting “independence” for SDF areas while trying to keep the PKK card out of the game.
Assad’s fall is a crushing blow to Iran’s “axis of resistance,” disrupting its supply lines to Hezbollah in Lebanon and exposing its carefully woven network of proxies. Israel, which never misses an opportunity, has stepped up its airstrikes on Syrian targets while expressing its intention to expand settlements in the Golan Heights – about 500 so far. If anyone thought that Assad’s departure would calm things down, Israel’s actions indicate otherwise.
As far as the Islamic State is concerned, rumors of its demise were premature. The Americans, who once claimed to have defeated it once and for all, now admit the group is making a comeback, with attacks in Syria expected to double in 2024.
The US, with its 900 troops on Syrian soil, is keeping a watchful eye as it manages detention camps filled with Islamic State fighters and their families, a breeding ground for trouble.
Meanwhile, a 2015 UN Security Council resolution calling for work on a new Syrian constitution and elections remains unfinished business. So, be careful, because in this theater of chaos, the script is still being written – a task that will continue even as we enter 2025 – with plenty of writers vying to write its final chapter.
High-stakes drama
West Asia has long been synonymous with power games, ideological tug-of-war and resource-driven strategies. The region remains a playground for US military power, which is still carrying out attacks. In 2024, instability reaches new heights, with an Israel-Iran face-off narrowly avoiding a full-scale regional war.
The year also saw continued violence between Israel and Hamas, with Hezbollah adding fuel to the fire. More than 45,000 Palestinians have been killed, and about 90% of Gaza’s population has been left homeless. On November 21, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Galant, accusing them of war crimes during the Israel–Hamas war – the leader of a key Western ally. An unprecedented step against.
Many analysts believe that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s expansionist policies and fundamentalist stance have sparked global outrage, yet Arab support for Palestine remains inconsistent, limited to fiery rhetoric rather than meaningful action. The conflict continues to derail efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, under the Abraham Accords, which Donald Trump initiated in his first term.
Fragile peace, long-term rivalry
Cracks are already visible in the much-vaunted 2023 China-brokered deal between arch-rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia. In 2024, their growing rivalry has reemerged, with Syria at the center of the conflict. Iran is pressuring Syria’s interim government to honor a so-called $30 billion bilateral aid deal – not for the cash, but to maintain its hold in a post-Assad Syria. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s attention is divided between the Yemeni quagmire and its ‘Vision 2030’ ambitions. This fragile peace is at risk of being disrupted by unresolved tensions. Proxy conflicts in Yemen and Iraq could continue to escalate or simmer, potentially rekindling destabilizing conflict or paving the way for de facto regional integration.
US retreat and regional power transition
Many Western analysts believe the Biden administration’s pivot to curb China has left West Asia playing a game of geopolitical musical chairs. Türkiye is flexing its muscles as a mediator and powerbroker, while the UAE is expanding its influence through savvy economic deals and security initiatives. Russia, despite internal conflicts, maintains its strategic edge with military bases in Syria. A reduced US presence creates opportunities for regional powers to grow but also carries the risk of increasing competition. As Türkiye, Iran and Saudi Arabia compete for dominance, the future of West Asia looks more unpredictable.
beyond oil
OPEC’s production cuts in 2024 reinforce the region’s dependence on crude, even as some member nations are considering diversification. Saudi Arabia’s NEOM megacity and green energy projects symbolize ambitions for a post-oil future. Success in diversification could stabilize the region, but failure would leave many countries vulnerable to socio-economic upheaval in a world moving beyond oil.
A PowerBroker in Waiting
Türkiye appears to be in prime position to lead the reconstruction of Syria and play a key role in stabilizing West Asia. With the reopening of its embassy in Damascus after 12 years, Ankara is signaling its intention to play a key role in Syria’s recovery from civil war and economic devastation. In the long run, Türkiye’s influence is likely to grow as it pursues this complex reconstruction effort.
For Türkiye and the EU, the stakes are high. The promise of a stable Syria is not just about altruism; This is a strategic necessity. During her visit to Ankara on 17 December, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an additional $1 billion in funding to Turkey for refugee assistance – a timely acknowledgment of Turkey’s enormous commitment. Turkey has borne the brunt of the crisis, hosting about 3.5 million Syrian refugees, while the EU has taken in more than 1.5 million refugees since the conflict began in 2011.
If Turkey can balance its role as both a regional power and a bridge to the West, it can turn this moment into a diplomatic and humanitarian victory. It will also have a stabilizing effect throughout West Asian countries.
trump factor
In 2024, West Asia stands at a crossroads. While the region faces many challenges – from political instability to economic dependence on oil – there are also opportunities for change. Whether 2025 will be a year of renewal or regression depends on the choices made by regional and global actors. The Trump factor is going to play an important role in how the new year and beyond will be for West Asia. There have been very mixed signals so far from the incoming Trump administration regarding the extent of its plans to be actively involved in the region. Until this becomes clear, I believe no regional player will be willing to take any decisive steps right now.
But as the curtain falls on 2024, one thing is clear, West Asia will remain a region whose dynamics will continue to shape the world for years to come.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
