The 2024 US presidential election is being keenly watched across the world, both for the outcome and outcome. A month later, surveys suggest a virtual tie. Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, saw a surge in popularity after donating her party’s official nomination in August. But over the past two weeks, a series of events — a devastating hurricane in North Carolina, rising tensions in the Middle East, the vice presidential debate, and repeated concerns about inflation — have shifted the momentum back toward former President Donald Trump. It appears. There may still be a lot going on next month, but ultimately, the outcome will be determined by seven ‘swing states’ – Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin – and each may be decided by just a few dozen. It is of thousands of voters. Although the Democrats are likely to win more votes overall (as they have won in seven of the last eight presidential elections), their ability to ensure high turnout among their supporters in these swing states may become the deciding factor.
impact on issues
This election campaign is being fought less on issues and more on perceptions and attitudes. Trump is playing on dissatisfaction with the bureaucratic state, skepticism toward international entanglements, low taxes for businesses and investors, curbs on immigration, and social conservatism, though he attempted to weaken the latter to appeal more to liberal voters. Is. Harris has positioned herself as attractive to youth, urban voters, ethnic minorities, responsible governance, and progressive social issues. Their competing worldviews reflect a stark division in American society along age and class lines, ethnic groups, and especially urban and rural constituencies, with Republicans and Democrats deeply entrenched in ‘big tent’ coalitions. Suburban voters, white women, second-generation Hispanics and union workers are among the constituencies in which Republicans and Democrats are still struggling to influence public opinion.
The outcome of the 2024 US presidential election will matter for India, although perhaps less directly than for some other countries and regions. For America’s adversaries (China, Russia, Iran and North Korea) the election will determine negotiations on future relations. For U.S. allies (NATO members in Europe, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia), the election may signal a change in U.S. military positioning, aid, and commitment. For those actively involved in current or potential conflicts (Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan), the outcome will determine the nature of US military assistance. And for key trading partners (Mexico, ASEAN, UK), the election could have a profound impact on their economies.
India will be affected, but not directly
India is less directly affected than many of these countries, rather than being an adversary, a treaty ally, or a country dependent on military or financial assistance from the United States. Sure, India is the ninth-largest trading partner of the United States and enjoys a trade surplus of nearly $30 billion, but its economy is currently less dependent on manufacturing exports than some other large emerging markets like Mexico or Vietnam. Is. Although the direct impact for India may be less than others, the 2024 US presidential election will undoubtedly have an indirect impact on India.
If Trump is elected, India will face some tough negotiations on trade and immigration. Trump and his economic advisers have made clear that they will impose tariffs on countries they believe engage in unfair trade practices, particularly China. But India, which enjoys a trade surplus, will also have some impact, resulting in New Delhi retaliating. Questions remain about to what extent a second Trump administration can reshape trade policy without negatively impacting the US economy – particularly inflation. Additionally, Trump’s advisers have promised to curb immigration, especially by undocumented individuals, which could also affect Indians. Trump is also likely to impose restrictions on employment and student visas and cut funding for processing, which would further increase backlogs and delays. This will have an impact on various Indian businesses in the United States.
China is still a big question
For both Trump and Harris, whose foreign policy views still lie beyond the broad continuity of incumbent Joe Biden’s approach, a primary determinant of their approach will be their policy toward China. While Trump’s national security, foreign policy and trade advisers have been highly hawkish on China – suggesting a confrontational and competitive approach – some of his donors and financial allies have advocated a more cooperative attitude and reduced US tensions with Beijing. .
Meanwhile, Harris will have to contend with tough national security and trade impulses as well as a progressive agenda among some Democrats that wants to isolate the United States from international competition and conflict. Progressives – as well as Obama administration veterans who hope to return to influence under Harris’ leadership – are more likely to prioritize human rights over the balance of power in foreign policy.
A lot will depend on the supporting cast
Ultimately, both Trump and Harris’ approach to China – and, by extension, international affairs – will be determined by their selection of key advisers as president. Key Cabinet-level positions – the US Secretaries of State, Defense and Treasury, the National Security Advisor, and the US Trade Representative – as well as second- and third-tier political appointees will have the opportunity to set the direction for US foreign policy. Next four years. Around Trump, figures like Robert O’Brien and Robert Lighthizer are expected to play important roles. The composition of Harris’s foreign policy team is more uncertain, but it will likely be drawn from both Biden- and Obama-era officials. Both Harris and Trump may also bring senior US senators into their Cabinets, although this will be determined by the margins in the Senate after this November’s elections.
For all these reasons, developments over the next month – and the transition period between the November elections and the inauguration of the next president in January – will be watched carefully in India and around the world.
(Dhruv Jaishankar is executive director of ORF America in Washington, DC)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
