The assassination of Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh just hours after President Masoud Pezeshkian’s swearing-in ceremony in the Iranian capital Tehran has sparked a worldwide uproar, but the reaction to the killing is expected to be quick, and possibly widespread.
After all, Haniyeh was the political head of a group that the US and many others had labeled a terrorist organisation. In fact, some had designated the group as such long before al-Qaeda was listed in the same category. Organisations like al-Qaeda saw a more rapid rise in the use of violence on a global scale, culminating with the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US, which also initiated the two-decade-long ‘war on terror’. Organisations like Hamas, on the other hand, limited themselves to the issue of both Palestinian sovereignty and fundamental ideological hatred of the State of Israel.
‘Axis of resistance’ at Iranian president’s swearing-in ceremony
Haniyeh’s killing is shocking, but not unexpected. In November 2023, a month after Hamas plotted a terror attack against Israel – after which the group has held hostages – the Israeli establishment made it clear that it would attack the leadership of organisations such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and others. At the time, the Yemen-based Ansarallah (better known as the Houthis) was not as big an actor as it has become today, especially on the Red Sea theatre. At Pezeshkian’s swearing-in ceremony, the leadership of all these groups, formally known as the ‘Axis of Resistance’, were present.
Watch | What Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh did hours before his assassination
The fact that Haniyeh was assassinated in the heart of Tehran at a time when it was crowded with military personnel sends a strong message of both access and compromise to the Iranian security and political structures. It also further underlined the fact that a story was created to show where groups like Hamas get their strength from (though this has not been a matter of question or dispute). While Israel has not taken responsibility for the attack, Iran blames the Jewish state for it. However, in the meantime, Israel has taken responsibility for the killing of top Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukur in an attack on the Lebanese capital Beirut and the elimination of Hamas military commander in Gaza, Mohammed Deif, who is believed to be the main plotter of the October 7 terror attack.
what next?
The biggest question at this juncture is what happens next? In April, Iran retaliated against Israel after Israel targeted part of its diplomatic mission in Damascus, Syria. This incident set up an escalation where Iran could not be seen as unwilling or incapable of responding directly militarily, nor only through its proxy groups spread across the region. While Tehran has long sought to create a level of strategic ambiguity, where attacks by proxy groups that receive material and political support from the country’s all-powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its elite covert overseas wing, the Quds Force, gave it a level of deniability, Haniyeh’s killing may have been partly designed to reverse this blueprint and draw Iran out of its shadows, into a more direct, visible and public confrontation.
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Even if Iran wants to exercise restraint for the time being, the rhetoric and expectations of its Axis allies may not allow it to do so. If, logically, Israel is expecting a response from Tehran, the speech delivered by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on Thursday found itself in the same position as Israel, which was expecting a proactive response from the Iranian side. “Do those people think they can kill a commander like Ismail Haniyeh and Iran will remain silent?” Nasrallah said, stating the need to avenge Haniyeh’s death. For a long time, the Iran-backed Axis nations have been fighting for their own ideological and political objectives that promote a large build-up in the way of providing both manpower and geography. During this time, they have also suffered heavy losses. This is especially true for Hamas in Gaza. It may be difficult for Iran to exercise strategic restraint now, even if organizations like Hezbollah can do so themselves in the long run despite the rhetoric.
Some people are forced to find a middle path
For others in the region, especially in the Arabian Gulf, the current state of tensions remains worrisome. Pezeshkian’s swearing-in ceremony was attended by several top Arab representatives, including from the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and others. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have in recent times stepped up their engagement with Iran to turn the long-standing narrative of Shia-Sunni confrontation in the right direction. While sectarian issues have mostly remained unaddressed, geopolitical and geoeconomic realities have forced countries like Saudi Arabia to find a middle path through, for example, negotiations with the Houthis in Yemen, a group they have technically been at war with since 2015.
For Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, etc., reframing this crisis first as a battle between Israel and Iran, and then as a longer and larger battle for Palestinian self-determination, may be crucial to securing their own neutrality.
The area remains sensitive
The US, a major security player in the region, has been relatively silent since Haniyeh’s death. US President Joe Biden has said Haniyeh’s killing would not help a negotiated deal with Hamas on a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who himself faces serious political challenges, has chosen to give in to popular demand to eliminate prominent figures like Haniyeh at a time when even if a deal were reached, it would in turn require the release of hundreds of Hamas members currently held in Israeli prisons.
Finally, regional tensions are expected to remain high in the coming days as Iran and its proxies decide on a response. In April, there were signs that tensions between Iran and Israel were somewhat defused and managed, perhaps through indirect communication or some form of mediation. This time, the region may not be so lucky unless urgent regional and global efforts are made to calm the situation.
(Kabir Taneja is a Fellow, Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation. He is the author of The ISIS Peril: The World’s Most Feared Terror Group and Its Shadow on South Asia (Penguin Viking, 2019).)
Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author
