The Taliban swiftly took control of Kabul following the withdrawal of the US-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) on August 15, 2021, a significant diplomatic setback for India. The Taliban are believed to have been supported by the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP) operating around the Durand Line as well as moderates in Doha.
Amid the ensuing chaos, India was forced to close its embassy in Kabul, evacuating diplomats and citizens. New Delhi had invested heavily in Afghanistan, but the future looked uncertain in the shadow of the conflict. As of August 2020, there were about 1,710 Indians in Afghanistan, working in sectors such as banking, IT, construction, healthcare, NGOs, telecom, security, and education, as well as in Afghan and UN missions.
Aid to Afghanistan
The return of the Taliban and the subsequent withdrawal of international forces led to the withdrawal of many countries, including India. However, the Taliban leadership soon realized that running a government requires more than just military might—it requires external funding and assistance. New Delhi has responded cautiously to Kabul’s appeals for assistance. Important delegations have visited Afghanistan and a technical mission was established in June 2022 to better understand and coordinate humanitarian efforts.
Since 2001, India has committed over US$3 billion for development and reconstruction projects in Afghanistan. Bilateral trade between India and Afghanistan stood at US$1.5 billion in 2019-20. India has supported projects such as a new parliament building in Kabul and two major river dams. There are over 500 projects spread across 34 Afghan provinces, addressing critical sectors such as electricity, water supply, road connectivity, healthcare, education, agriculture and capacity building.
Various bilateral and multilateral meetings have taken place, and Rs 200 crore has been allocated to Afghanistan in the Union Budget 2024-25. This is down from Rs 350 crore in the 2021-22 budget.
The Taliban has urged India to restart development projects, arguing that such initiatives would create jobs, alleviate poverty and boost development.
The China factor
India’s outreach to Afghanistan is influenced by regional dynamics, including China’s growing activity. Initially excluded from China’s vast Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Asia, Afghanistan has seen increased Chinese involvement and financing. A parliamentary committee on foreign affairs report last year noted the strategic importance for India to deepen ties with its smaller neighbours in response to China’s BRI and the US’ Indo-Pacific vision.
China is befriending the Taliban to counter the Uighur separatist movement. Beijing wants the Taliban to address the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, which is active in Badakhshan, Faryab, Kabul and Nuristan provinces, according to a 2021 UN report. The report indicated that the group seeks to establish a Uighur state in China’s Xinjiang and facilitate the movement of fighters from Afghanistan to China.
Despite its efforts, Beijing’s support for Afghanistan has not met all expectations. China has provided money, machinery and technical assistance, but not as generously as Afghanistan had hoped. According to Afghanistan’s National Statistics and Information Authority (NSIA), the country’s economic growth in 2022 was recorded at -6.2%.
Pakistan is no longer a friend
Pakistan has long served as a training ground and launchpad for the Mujahideen in their struggle against the Soviet army. Reportedly supported by the CIA, Peshawar in Pakistan soon became an important hub for fighters. This is well described in The Bear Trap by Brigadier Mohammed Yusuf and Mark Adkin. Yusuf, who headed Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Afghan desk from 1983 to 1987, and Adkin, who was a Major in the British Army, have detailed the logistical and military support Pakistan received from the CIA during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.
Besides the US and the former Soviet Union, many other countries have played strategic games in Afghanistan because of its geopolitical importance. As a result, the people there have been divided along ethnic and cultural lines to serve the interests of these outside powers. Peter Hopkirk documents this history in The Great Game, a term coined by British intelligence officer Captain Arthur Connolly during the British occupation of the country in the 19th century.
Despite their ethnic differences, Afghans have resisted invaders for centuries. During the Soviet era, Pashtuns from the south and Tajiks and Uzbeks from the north employed guerrilla tactics, attacking and retreating across the country’s rugged terrain.
A paper by Amna Puri-Mirza, a researcher specialising in the Middle East, published in September 2022 suggests that as of 2020, Afghanistan’s population of around 33 million was 42% Pashtun, 27% Tajik, and 9% Hazara. The CIA World Factbook estimates that in 2020, Afghan Persian (Dari) and Pashto were spoken by 77% and 48% of the population, respectively.
The Durand Line, established as the official border between undivided India and Afghanistan in November 1893, remains controversial. Afghanistan has never accepted the border, but instead sought to shift it eastward to include Pashtun-majority areas in Pakistan. This disagreement has led to intermittent conflicts.
Relations between Islamabad and Kabul have deteriorated as Pakistan has increased pressure on Afghanistan for harboring the “Pakistani Taliban” and alleged attacks on Pakistani soil. The continuous firing has led to the closure of the border, causing great inconvenience to Afghan traders. Major border crossings such as Torkham and Spin Boldak have been particularly affected, with long queues of vehicles.
India has faced setbacks in its involvement in Afghanistan over the past three decades. In the ongoing war, countries such as China, Russia and Iran are influential in shaping Afghanistan’s future, and India must handle these changing alliances carefully.
(Jayanta Bhattacharya is a senior journalist who writes on elections and politics, conflicts, farmers and human interest issues)
Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author
