Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Poland and Ukraine is being seen by the pro-Western lobby in India as a new attempt at Indian foreign policy towards Central and Eastern Europe, aimed at rebalancing its relations with Russia and Central Europe, and more specifically, its relations with Russia and Ukraine.
This lobby believes that India has so far not had any dialogue with Ukraine and the erstwhile Warsaw Pact countries, protecting its sensitivities towards Russia. Hence Modi’s visit to Ukraine is being seen in these pro-Western circles as a long overdue reform in India’s approach towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
It is argued that India has always remained silent on Russia’s unacceptable actions, even when they challenged the fundamental tenets of India’s worldview – the sanctity of national sovereignty and territorial integrity. The political cost of this silence on Russian aggression is mounting and hence we are witnessing a shift in India’s approach.
A shallow analysis
Such analysis of India’s foreign policy is ill-informed, shallow and ideological. Take the Czech Republic as an example of India’s alleged weakness with Central and Eastern Europe. Look at the reality: India’s former President Ram Nath Kovind visited in 2018; the Czech Prime Minister visited India in 2019, when Czech Republic was a partner country at the Vibrant Gujarat Summit; its Defence Minister visited in February 2019, its Foreign Minister in January 2020; former CDS Gen Rawat visited the Czech Republic in November 2021; India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) visited in June 2022; the Czech Foreign Minister visited India in February 2023; the Czech Prime Minister visited India in January 2024 when the India-Czechia Strategic Partnership Innovation was adopted. The Czech Foreign Minister will visit India again in February 2024. Similarly, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban visited India in 2013, Hungary’s Foreign Minister has visited India thrice – in 2020, 2022 and 2024 – while India’s External Affairs Minister visited Hungary in 2019. High-level visits have also been exchanged with Slovakia as well as Poland.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has raised serious problems not just for India but for the entire international community. The US, Europe and the G-7 are standing against Russia. China, which has deep ties with the West, is supporting Russia, keeping in mind that Beijing is now seen by the US as its biggest adversary. Hence it values Russia as a partner. India has deepening ties with the West, but it also has close historical ties with Russia. India is in no position to isolate either the West or Russia, as it needs both to protect and advance its broader national interests.
The Russia-Ukraine issue is multi-layered
If Russia has shown aggression against Ukraine, the list of aggression that the US and its NATO allies have shown against other countries is very long. If this has not stopped India from building close ties with the US and NATO countries, why would it be wrong to maintain its relations with Russia? Should we also adopt double standards?
More pertinently, an objective analysis of the Ukraine conflict will show that the responsibility for it does not lie on one side alone. It is not a simple matter of violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity of a single country. It involves much larger and complex issues such as historical legacy, geopolitics, national security, balance of power, ethnic rights, external intervention, regime change, etc.
India cannot look at this conflict from a simplistic perspective, especially because those who seek to promote the interests of the West must remember that the West’s record on issues of our own sovereignty and territorial integrity has been unfavorable to our interests and continues to be unhelpful to us.
Multilateralism has collapsed
Modi’s visit to Ukraine should not be seen as India undermining its relations with Russia and Ukraine. India as well as the global south in general have been affected in many ways by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Europe too has been affected by this conflict, which is also against our interests, at a time when we want to deepen our relations with Europe, especially on the trade and technology front, not to mention larger issues like energy security, climate change, critical technologies etc. that require constructive cooperation with Europe.
The complete breakdown of dialogue between the US and Russia is also against our interests. The liberal use of sanctions as a political and economic tool hampers our relations with Russia as well as other countries like Iran. Multilateralism has almost collapsed. It prevents much-needed international cooperation to solve problems of global nature. To look at Modi’s Ukraine visit only in the context of balancing our relations with Russia is to ignore the larger issue.
This is even more significant because Russia was taken into confidence about this visit and had no doubt that India would not do anything to harm its interests. Russia never advised us not to negotiate with Ukraine or to build closer ties with the US, including defence ties, which is an area of major interest for Moscow in its relations with India. On the contrary, the US openly asks us to reduce ties with Russia, especially in the defence sector.
Many reasons
There are many reasons behind Modi’s visit to Ukraine. They stem from a growing desire to do whatever possible to resolve the conflict peacefully. Modi has been saying in many forums that India is ready to help. India’s growing stature under Modi, India’s success in chairing the G-20, India’s narrative that we want friendship with all, that we are in a position to talk to countries that may be hostile to each other, the confidence promoted by our Western interlocutors that Modi, after his exhortation to Putin that “today is not the era of war”, can talk peace to the Russians, are perhaps the reasons why Modi felt it was time to take his message of dialogue and diplomacy to Kiev.
Moreover, Modi perhaps wanted to assuage the growing criticism in the US and Ukraine after his visit to Moscow, where he hugged Putin in his signature greeting style, which Putin has also adopted, by making a balanced visit to Kyiv. During the visit, he deliberately hugged Zelensky on three occasions, put his hand on his shoulders and held his hand in a gesture of personal sympathy and empathy. The Ukrainian side, keeping in mind that Modi in Moscow had expressed great sorrow to Putin over the killing of children in the war, organised a visit to the exhibition in Kyiv on children killed in the ongoing conflict to expose Modi to Russian brutalities. The Ukrainian side also wanted Modi to visit a hospital allegedly bombed by Russia, but the Indian side would have objected to the event being attended by too many anti-Russian elements.
India’s position is clear
In essence, India left nothing unsaid during the visit on the fundamentals of its position on the conflict. India did not support Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan, which was lobbied for by the Ukrainian President. External Affairs Minister Jaishankar declared in his press briefing that there are many ways to approach the issue of peace talks. India’s position is clearly reflected in the joint statement, which states that all stakeholders must be involved in developing innovative solutions that have wide acceptance. Jaishankar made a point of drawing attention to this paragraph in the joint statement in his press briefing.
It is noteworthy that the joint statement with Poland and Ukraine did not even mention Russia in the paragraph on the Ukraine issue, as was the case in the G-20 Delhi Declaration. But neither Ukraine nor Poland was present there. This was a remarkable success of Indian diplomacy.
India safeguarded its ties with Russia while engaging with Zelensky in Ukraine.
Perhaps the failure to get India on side and drive some wedge between India and Russia would explain Zelenskyy’s comments to the Indian press in Kyiv, which reflect his differences with India and are completely lacking in diplomatic propriety.
(Kanwal Sibal was Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to Turkey, Egypt, France and Russia and Deputy Chief of Mission in Washington.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author