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Sunday, July 7, 2024

Opinion: Modi-Hasina should worry about China, but not too much

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The inherent strength of India-Bangladesh relations was once again on display when Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina decided to visit New Delhi a few days after attending the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The ease with which the top leadership in Delhi and Dhaka interact and engage with each other is a testament to how Modi and Hasina have built this important partnership over the past decade, often under very difficult circumstances. If Modi had to grapple with opposition at the state level in West Bengal, where the ruling party decided to veto the Teesta treaty, Hasina had to face an anti-India electorate in Bangladesh. Despite this, both leaders were adamant that building resilience into this partnership was important not just bilaterally but also regionally.

“trusted friend”

Hasina, on her first official foreign visit to any country after coming back to power in January this year, emphasised: “India is our key neighbour, trusted friend and regional partner. Bangladesh-India relations are growing rapidly.” Modi responded, highlighting the special nature of the visit: “As she is our first state guest after our government came back to power for the third term.”

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The visit saw the signing of 10 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs), covering diverse areas such as digital and green partnership, maritime cooperation, and particularly the ‘Shared Vision for India-Bangladesh Rail Connectivity’. The joint statement underscored the shared bilateral and regional vision for peace, prosperity, and development driven by connectivity, commerce, and cooperation. In that spirit, some significant new initiatives were announced, including e-visas for Bangladeshi patients, new train and bus services, Joint Technical Committee for the Ganga Water Treaty, visit of an Indian technical team to Bangladesh for a mega project for conservation and management of the Teesta river, export of 40 MW power from Nepal to Bangladesh through the Indian grid, and training of Bangladeshi police officers. Building Bangladesh’s defence capacity has also emerged as a priority, with the two countries deciding to “explore defence industrial cooperation for modernisation of Bangladesh’s armed forces”.

Identifying opportunities, counterbalancing China

Hasina will visit China in July. It is a sign of new maturity in India-Bangladesh relations as the two countries continue to work closely together while also developing their ties with other countries. New Delhi has not stopped Dhaka from its ties with China, but it has certain concerns that Hasina has always ensured are addressed. Since 2020, China has been regularly expressing interest in a $1 billion project to develop the Teesta river. Last year, Beijing submitted a formal proposal.

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This has long been a priority for Bangladesh. The Manmohan Singh government had struck a deal in 2011, which could not be taken forward due to opposition from the West Bengal chief minister. For Hasina, the situation had become untenable, with the opposition demanding answers amid China’s antics. Her visit before China went ahead was a sensible move to ensure that New Delhi got a chance to respond, and India has done well to respond to the initiative. The decision to send an Indian technical team to Dhaka for talks on the conservation and management of the Teesta river is a sign that New Delhi is not willing to give up its strategic place in the neighbourhood despite domestic challenges. The decision to begin technical talks for the renewal of the 1996 Ganges Water Treaty is also a timely move to respond to concerns in Dhaka on an issue that is a priority for the Hasina government.

A relationship as strong as a rock

For India, the importance of Bangladesh cannot be overstated as New Delhi seeks to emerge as a player in the Indo-Pacific region with the Bay of Bengal as the regional hub. For Bangladesh, a partnership with India is crucial to realising its full potential as an important economic and strategic player in the region. As both countries become more ambitious in defining their strategic visions, their bilateral partnership will continue to be a key enabler in shaping their behaviour.

The Chinese aspect is important, but it should not be overstated. India-Bangladesh relations today stand on their own merits. Hasina and Modi have ensured that by focusing on concrete results for the people of both countries, they have redefined the contours of an ideal partnership between two neighbours. Mutual respect, mutual interest and mutual sensitivity have made this relationship a model for all.

(Harsh V Pant is vice president for studies and foreign policy at ORF.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author

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