The terrorist attacks carried out by Hamas on October 7 last year led to a massive massacre of civilians, the consequences of which continue to this day. Today marks one year since that fateful morning. Both the attack by a non-state actor and the state response to it were unprecedented in their sheer scope, lethality and destruction. Gaza has been leveled, with millions of people internally displaced within a narrow strip of Gaza. Israel also lost approximately 1,200 civilians and soldiers; This is in addition to the more than 250 people who were taken hostage by Hamas on October 7.
Many people forget that the date of the Hamas attack was also the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. The gravity of the day and the need to increase security should not have gone unnoticed by the Mossad, Shin Bet and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). But perhaps Israel was overconfident. So when the agencies found out, Benjamin Netanyahu, leading Israel’s far-right government, naturally vowed to destroy Hamas, with only one goal in mind: recapturing Gaza.
The world has failed to understand the conflict
However, despite the bombing of Palestine and the killing of many Hamas militants and leaders, the group is still alive a year later. It still holds about 100 hostages in the hope of using them to broker a permanent ceasefire and the release of its prisoners from Israeli prisons. But Netanyahu is in no mood for talks. Already, they have extended their tenure to avoid legal action, subjecting themselves to International Court of Justice (ICJ) rulings and International Criminal Court (ICC) warrants in the process. However, these things mean little to him – if anything, Netanyahu appears to wear this international criticism as a medal of honor.
The international community’s approach to resolving the conflict has been flawed from the beginning. The focus has always been on avoiding escalation and expansion of war without showing much commitment towards addressing the root cause of tensions, including the Palestinian issue. Both Iran and Israel suffer from Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) syndrome, that is, in the event of a conflict, they will strive for the complete destruction of each other. Iran’s quest for nuclear parity with Israel and the continuation of its asymmetric advantage and influence through its proxies, the three or four ‘H’s – Hamas in Gaza and Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, the Houthis and Kata’ib Hezbollah in Iraq – Has been the source. Concern for the Jewish state as well as its supporters in the West, especially America.
‘Neutrality’ of Arab countries
Even Arab countries in the region are wary of Iranian power efforts and projections – which is why, even as many countries have continued their rapprochement with Iran, the ongoing Israeli campaign against its proxies But there is not much objection. This was evident during the recent Iran-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) meeting in Doha, where new Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian met the Emir of Qatar and the foreign ministers of the GCC countries. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister clearly claimed that his country is committed to resolving all differences with Iran. “We wish to close forever the pages of differences between the two countries and work towards resolution of our issues and expansion of our relations as two friendly and brotherly states,” he said.
The Gulf countries also assured Iran of their neutrality in the ongoing war and said they would not allow US bases to operate against Iran. How this will happen is a million dollar question, given how many of these countries have recently closed their airspace; In fact, recently the missiles fired by Iran at Israel were neutralized by the American airbase in Jordan.
Iran has given up restraint
In April, the bombing of the Iranian mission in Damascus led to a systematic exchange of missiles and attacks and counter-attacks. Subsequently, Tehran was persuaded not to retaliate over the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh as a ceasefire agreement was about to be reached. Iran’s new, somewhat moderate president, is keen to reopen channels of communication with the West and the US, including over its nuclear files, which explains the “strategic restraint and patience” initially shown by Iran.
But following the shocking assassination of the political and military leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon, including Hassan Nasrallah, the Iranian regime was left with no option but to respond, lest it be viewed as a mere paper tiger by its own people and proxies. To be seen in. Therefore, on October 1, it fired about 181 missiles, most of which were intercepted by the US and others, although some entered Israeli territory, targeting Mossad and military installations. Of course, it is being said that the information about this operation has been shared through common negotiators.
‘oil’ factor
Netanyahu described the escalation as a direct attack by Iran and vowed to respond and retaliate at a time and place of his choosing. Reports indicate that Tel Aviv wants to attack Iranian nuclear facilities – it has done so before, covertly – but US President Biden is not in favor of it. Instead, they are reportedly planning to target some oil installations and refineries. Already, oil prices have surged above $8 per barrel and may even break the stable band, impacting many economies including India.
Thus, Israel is acting simultaneously on multiple fronts, including Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Iraq, and Iran. Iraqi militia groups have also used UAVs and missiles to attack Israeli targets, saying any attack on Iranian territories would deprive the world of oil supplies from others.
For now, the IDF’s main priority in Lebanon is the elimination of Hezbollah. Heavy clashes have been reported from southern Lebanon, forcing approximately one million Lebanese and Syrian refugees to flee for safety. Israel feels that Hezbollah’s continued attacks from across the border in northern Israel are threatening its sovereignty, with more than 70,000 displaced Israelis unable to return to their homes. But even in leaning towards this argument, it fails to realize the consequences of what is happening to the 20 times larger Palestinian population in Gaza, which is being herded from one place to another in inhumane conditions. The Lebanese army has also been dragged into the war and has responded to the attacks as it urges it to adhere to UNSC Resolution 1701.
The world watches with bated breath
The international community has expressed deep concern over the deteriorating situation in Lebanon as intense shelling continues along the Blue Line and incursions into areas overseen by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati also continues to urge the implementation of the 21-day ceasefire proposed by the US and France and the provision of uninterrupted humanitarian and relief supplies as his country is already grappling with deep political uncertainty and a financial crisis. Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Minister promised humanitarian aid in his recent visits to Beirut and Damascus and assured his full assistance to dissidents Hezbollah and Hamas.
Although G7 leaders have condemned Iran’s missile attacks, they issued a statement saying hostilities need to end as soon as possible to make room for a diplomatic solution along the Blue Line. The Arab League also expressed its concern and full support towards Lebanon. As for Iran, it appears to have abandoned its strategic restraint and has said that although it did not want to escalate the war, the Israeli attack would force it to respond in an unconventional manner. Will give. A rare Friday sermon from Ayatollah Khamenei underlined that sentiment. Some also argue that with its nuclear enrichment at minimal levels, Iran is capable of producing small nuclear weapons in a very short period of time. And if Israel chooses to target Iranian missile stockpiles, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters, air or sea bases, or nuclear or oil and gas facilities in its next attack, it could also force Iran to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Due to which sea travel may be disrupted. Trade and hydrocarbon transit.
Situation may become complicated for India also
India has been urging restraint and resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. Three of its ships remain in Iranian ports for some exercises. Indian naval assets are also protecting sea lanes and commercial shipping after the Houthis attacked ships in the Red Sea. New Delhi has close relations with both Iran and Israel. The region – India’s extended neighborhood – is important because any instability and security deficit would mean risks to the three ‘Es’ – the economy, energy supply and the welfare of nearly 9 million migrants.
As things stand, unless sanity prevails on all sides, we are headed irreversibly into disaster, which is being made possible primarily by the absence of any effective multilateral deterrence.
(Ambu Anil Trigunayat is a distinguished fellow of the Vivekananda International Foundation)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
