Two US researchers say they have identified a potential deployment site in Russia for the 9M370 Burevestnik, a new nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed cruise missile that President Vladimir Putin has described as “invincible”.
Putin has said the weapon – which NATO has named the SSC-X-9 Skyfall – has virtually unlimited range and can evade U.S. missile defense systems. But some Western experts dispute his claims and Burevestnik’s strategic importance, saying it would not add capabilities to Moscow it doesn’t already have and that it risks a radiation-burst accident.
Using images taken on July 26 by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite firm, the two researchers identified a construction project adjacent to a nuclear weapons storage facility known by two names — Vologda-20 and Chebsara — as a possible deployment site for the new missile. The facility is 295 miles (475 km) north of Moscow.
Reuters is the first to report the development.
Decker Eveleth, an analyst with the CNA research and analysis organization, looked at satellite imagery and estimated there are nine horizontal launch pads under construction. He said they are placed in three groups inside high berms to protect them from attack or to prevent an accidental explosion in one from setting off missiles in the others.
These berms are connected by roads, which Eveleth concludes are likely to lead to buildings caring for the missiles and their components, and are also connected to an existing complex of five nuclear weapon storage bunkers.
“This site is for a large, stationary missile system, and the only large, stationary missile system they (Russia) are currently developing is Skyfall,” Eveleth said.
The Russian Defense Ministry and the Washington embassy did not respond to requests for comment on their assessment, the Burevestnik’s strategic value, its test record and the risks it posed.
A Kremlin spokesman said those questions were for the Defense Ministry and declined to comment further.
The U.S. State Department, the CIA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the U.S. Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center declined to comment.
Eveleth and another researcher, Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, said the identification of the missile’s potential launch site shows Russia is moving toward its deployment after a series of tests in recent years that were plagued by problems.
Lewis agreed with Eveleth’s assessment after reviewing the images at his request. He said the image “reveals something very unique, very different. And obviously, we know that Russia is developing this nuclear-powered missile.”
Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists, who studied the Vologda imagery at Eveleth’s request, said it showed launch pads and other features “possibly” related to Burevestnik. But he said he could not make any definitive assessment because Moscow does not typically place missile launchers next to nuclear weapons storage.
Eveleth, Lewis, Christensen and three other experts said Moscow’s usual practice is to store nuclear payloads for land-based missiles away from launch sites — except for its deployed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force.
But Lewis and Eveleth said Burevestnik’s deployment in Vologda would allow the Russian military to store nuclear-tipped missiles in its bunkers, allowing them to be launched quickly.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russia will change its guidelines on the use of nuclear weapons in response to the Western countries’ growing role in the war in Ukraine, state news agency TASS reported on Sunday.
Poor Test record
A 2020 report by the United States Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center said that if Russia successfully brings Burevestnik into service, it would give Moscow “a unique weapon with intercontinental-range capability”.
But the weapon’s controversial past and design limitations have raised doubts among eight experts interviewed by Reuters about whether its deployment would change the nuclear threat to the West and other Russian adversaries.
Burevestnik has a poor testing record, with at least 13 tests since 2016, only two of which were partially successful, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), an advocacy group focused on reducing nuclear, biological and emerging technology risks.
These failures include an explosion in 2019 that occurred during the failed recovery of an unsecured nuclear reactor on the White Sea floor following a prototype accident that had been allowed to “smolder” for a year, according to the State Department report.
Russia’s state nuclear agency Rosatom said five workers were killed during a rocket test on August 8. Putin presented their widows with top government awards and said the weapons they were developing had no parallel in the world. He spoke without naming Burevestnik.
Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based expert on Russia’s nuclear forces, Lewis, Eveleth and other experts said it would not add capabilities that Moscow’s nuclear forces do not already have, including the ability to destroy U.S. missile defenses.
Additionally, its nuclear-powered engine poses a risk of spreading radiation along its flight path and its deployment poses a risk of an accident that could contaminate the surrounding area, said former U.S. nuclear weapons scientist Cheryl Roffer and other experts.
“Skyfall is a uniquely stupid weapons system, a flying Chernobyl that poses a greater threat to Russia than to other countries,” said Thomas Countryman, a former top U.S. State Department official who heads the Arms Control Association, referring to the 1986 nuclear plant disaster.
NATO did not answer questions about how the alliance would respond to the deployment of the weapon.
Little is publicly known about the technical details of Burevestnik.
Experts predict it will be launched by a small solid-fuel rocket to pump air into an engine with a miniature nuclear reactor. The superheated and possibly radioactive air will be expelled, providing forward thrust.
Unveiling it in March 2018, Putin said the missile would be “low-flying”, have a virtually unlimited range, an unpredictable flight path and be “invincible” for current and future security.
Many experts are skeptical of Putin’s claims.
He says the Burevestnik could have a range of about 15,000 miles (23,000 km) – while Russia’s latest ICBM Sarmat has a range of more than 11,000 miles (17,700 km) – while remaining undetected due to its subsonic speed.
“It’s going to be just as vulnerable as any cruise missile,” Kristensen said. “The longer it flies, the more vulnerable it will be because there’s more time to track it. I don’t understand Putin’s objective.”
Burevestnik’s deployment is not restricted by New START. New START, the last U.S.-Russian agreement limiting strategic nuclear weapon deployments, expires in February 2026.
A provision allows Washington to request negotiations with Moscow to bring Burevestnik within the ambit of the limits, but a State Department spokesman said no such talks had been sought.
Citing the war in Ukraine, Russia has rejected US calls for unconditional talks on a replacement for New START, raising fears that the deal could unleash a wider nuclear arms race after it expires.
Podvig said Moscow could use the missile as a bargaining chip if talks ever resume.
He called Burevestnik a “political weapon” used by Putin to bolster his strongman image ahead of re-election in 2018, and to send a message to Washington that it cannot dismiss his concerns about U.S. missile defense and other issues.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
