Nifty needs break of 25,900 amid volatility: Analysts

Chart patterns in the timeframe reflect indecision and rising volatility, suggesting exhaustion of the recent corrective phase rather than a clear trend reversal. Analysts see a critical close above the 25,880-25,900 zone as key to reviving upside momentum, while a break below 25,400-25,500 could deepen near-term weakness.

Nagaraj Shetty
Senior Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Where is Nifty going?
The Nifty tried to sustain higher levels on Friday but selling pressure near 25,900 stalled the recovery attempt. The index remains rangebound between 25,900-26,000 on the upside and 25,500 on the downside. On the weekly chart, the Nifty formed a high-wave type bull candle, reflecting continued volatility after last week’s sharp weakness. The broader trend remains tumultuous. A decisive move above 25,900 could open upside towards 26,300, while a break below 25,500 could deepen weakness towards 25,150 in the near term.

Trading Strategy: On a move above 25,900, traders may consider buying Nifty February futures 26,100 or February 24 Nifty 26,100 CE expiry around `350-400 for near-term upside. On a break below 25,500, traders can short Nifty February futures around 25,700 for potential downside.

Top Stock Bets

Canara Bank: Buy CMP Rs 157.1 | Target price Rs. 166 | Stop Loss Rs. 152

The stock showed a sharp bounce on Friday and saw a breakout from the consolidation. Bullish chart patterns such as higher tops and higher bottoms are intact. Volume expanded during the upside breakout, and the daily RSI is showing a positive signal.

Tech Mahindra: Buy CMP Rs 1,670.5 | Target price Rs. 1,760 | Stop Loss Rs. 1,620

On Friday the bullish flag moved into a breakout and closed higher. The barriers of the daily 10- and 20-EMA have been decisively breached. Volumes are expanding, and the daily RSI is showing positive signs for the stock price going forward.

Mehul Kothari
DVP – Technical Research, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers

Where is Nifty going?
Nifty continues to trade rangebound, holding firmly above the key 25,400 support, a strong demand zone. On the upside, 25,900 is critical resistance, and only a critical breakout above this level could initiate a sustained upside move. If the index remains in the 25,400-25,900 range, the trend is expected to remain sideways, warranting a cautious and selective approach. Volatility is rising, and a sharp move cannot be ruled out once the range resolution occurs.

Trading Strategy: In an environment of increasing volatility, aggressive short option strategies should be avoided. Traders are advised to wait for directional confirmation before deploying options trades. A directional bet in options can only be considered on a decisive move above 25,900 or below 25,400. A breakout above 25,900 may favor bull call spreads, while a breakdown below 25,400 may open opportunities for bear put spreads.

Top Stock Bets

Rail Development Corporation: Buy CMP Rs 334.7 | Target price Rs. 380 | Stop loss of Rs 303

RVNL remains attractive from a thematic perspective, driven by a theme linked to railways and the budget. This stock is Rs. Can accumulate in the range of 335-330.

Bank of India: Buy CMP Rs 157.2 | Target price Rs. 180 | Stop Loss Rs. 142

Bank of India after a sharp hike of Rs. Strengthening near strong support zone of 157-153. As long as Rs. 142 as long as it is safe, the broader framework remains positive, with the next few months at Rs. 180 with upside potential.

Sachitananda Uttekar
VP – Research (Technical & Derivatives), Tradebulls Securities

Where is Nifty going?
Last week’s recovery from 25,430 support produced a bullish hammer on the daily chart, while the weekly chart printed a spinning top, signaling indecisiveness. Both patterns indicate the exhaustion of the corrective phase within the 25,880-25,430 band. The hammer was followed by an inverse hammer-like reversal pattern in subsequent sessions, with key resistance placed at 25,880 (50-DEMA). However, these bullish signals will be validated only if the index sustains above 25,880 on a decisive close basis. Options data points to a range shift to 25,500-26,000 with strong support seen near 25,500 for the current weekly range.

Trading Strategy: Nifty: Traders may consider initiating new long positions only on a sustained, close-based breakout above 25,880. Until such confirmation, a long-short trade approach remains prudent, as the index is likely to remain range-bound between 26,050 and 25,430. Buying near support and selling near resistance in this band can be the strategy of choice for short-term traders.

Bank Nifty: Bank Nifty continues in ‘long-only’ mode. With a tight stop loss below 59,710, even on a decline towards the 59,850 zone, traders can continue to accumulate long positions. The index is likely to move towards the 60,600-60,850 zone in the near term, as long as the key support remains intact.

Top Stock Bets

Ultratech Cement: Buy at Rs 12,370 | CMP Rs 12,377 | Target price Rs. 13,100 | Stop Loss Rs. 12,040

On the weekly chart, the stock appears to have completed its flat wave corrective pattern with a strong base near the 11,500 zone. A bullish crossover of the 5- and 20-WEMA, with the weekly RSI breaking above the 50 mark, signals a revival in momentum. The structure now favors upward extension, making it a long high-probability position.