A US military veteran flying a black Islamic State flag on the truck he drove into New Year’s Eve celebrations in New Orleans shows the US-led military coalition has suffered years of losses. Despite this, extremist groups still have the ability to inspire violence.
At the height of its power from 2014–2017, the Islamic State “caliphate” imposed death and torture on communities across vast swathes of Iraq and Syria and enjoyed a franchise throughout the Middle East.
Its then-leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was killed by US special forces in northwestern Syria in 2019, rose from obscurity to lead the ultra-radical group and declare himself the “caliph” of all Muslims.
In 2017 in Iraq, where it had a base just a 30-minute drive from Baghdad, and in 2019 in Syria, the caliphate collapsed following a sustained military campaign by the US-led coalition.
Islamic State responded by splintering into autonomous cells, its leadership is secretive and its overall size difficult to measure. The United Nations estimates the number to be 10,000 in its heartlands.
The US-led coalition, including about 4,000 US troops in Syria and Iraq, has continued air strikes and raids on militants, with the US military saying hundreds of fighters and leaders have been killed and captured.
Yet Islamic State has managed few major operations while attempting to rebuild, and it continues to inspire lone wolf attacks such as the one in New Orleans that killed 14 people.
Those attacks include an explosion by gunmen at a Russian music hall in March 2024 that killed at least 143 people, and two explosions targeting an official ceremony in the Iranian city of Kerman in January 2024 that killed nearly 100 people were killed.
Despite counterterrorism pressure, ISIS has regrouped, “retooled its media operations, and resumed external conspiracy,” Brett Holmgren, acting U.S. director of the National Counterterrorism Center, warned in October.
Geopolitical factors have aided the Islamic State. Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza has stoked widespread anger that jihadists use as recruiting ground. The risk to Syrian Kurds, who hold thousands of Islamic State prisoners, could also create an opportunity for the group.
US law enforcement agencies said Islamic State has not claimed responsibility for the New Orleans attack or praised it on its social media sites, although its supporters have done so.
A senior US defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there is growing concern about Islamic State increasing its recruitment efforts and resurgence in Syria.
Those concerns grew after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December and the possibility of a terrorist group filling the void.
‘Moments of Promise’
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned that Islamic State will try to use this period of uncertainty to reestablish capabilities in Syria, but said the United States is committed to preventing that from happening.
“History shows how quickly moments of promise can turn into conflict and violence,” he said.
A UN team monitoring Islamic State activities reported to the UN Security Council in July about the group’s “resurgent threat” in the Middle East and the potential of its Afghanistan-based affiliate, ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K). Concerns increased about. , to carry out attacks outside the country.
European governments view ISIS-K as “the greatest external terrorist threat to Europe”.
“In addition to the executed attacks, a number of plots being disrupted or tracked extend to the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Levant, Asia, Europe, and potentially North America,” the team said.
Jim Jeffrey, a former US ambassador to Iraq and Turkey and special envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat Islamic State, said the group has long tried to inspire lone wolf attacks like the one in New Orleans.
However, there is still a threat from ISIS-K attempting to launch attacks with mass casualties, as was seen in Moscow and Iran and Europe in 2015 and 2016.
ISIS has also continued to focus on Africa.
This week, it said 12 Islamic State militants attacked a military base in Somalia’s northeastern region of Puntland on Tuesday, killing about 22 soldiers and wounding dozens of others.
It called the attack “the shock of the year”. A complex attack that is the first of its kind.
Security analysts say the influx of foreign fighters and more revenue from extortion from local businesses have led to Islamic State’s strength in Somalia, which has become the group’s “nerve center” in Africa.
‘The path of radicalism’
Shamsud-Din Jabbar, 42, a Texas native and U.S. Army veteran who once served in Afghanistan, acted alone in the New Orleans attack, the FBI said Thursday.
Jabbar appears to have made recordings in which he condemned restrictions on music, drugs and alcohol, which echo the ideology of Islamic State.
Investigators were probing Jabbar’s “path to radicalization”, unsure how he transformed from a military veteran, real-estate agent and one-time employee of the major tax and consulting firm Deloitte to someone who “linked to ISIS”. Was 100 percent motivated”. For Islamic State.
US intelligence and homeland security officials have warned local law enforcement in recent months about the potential for foreign extremist groups like ISIS to target large public gatherings, particularly vehicles, according to intelligence bulletins reviewed by Reuters. With anti-attacks.
US Central Command said in a public statement in June that Islamic State was attempting to “reorganize after several years of declining capabilities.”
CENTCOM said it based its assessment on Islamic State claims to increase attacks in Iraq and Syria to 153 in the first half of 2024, a rate that would put the group “on pace to more than double the number of attacks”, As claimed a year ago.
HA Hellyer, an expert in Middle East studies and senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies, said it was unlikely that Islamic State would regain much territory.
He said that ISIS and other non-state actors pose a threat, but are more of a threat because of their ability to carry out “random acts of violence” rather than being a regional entity.
“Not in Syria or Iraq, but there are other places in Africa where a limited amount of territorial control might be possible for some time,” Hellyer said, “but I don’t see that as likely, nor as a harbinger of any serious situation.” . Come back.”
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