Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced pressure for months from political allies and the families of hostages and soldiers to end the Gaza war, but analysts say he now hopes a ceasefire will allow him to stay in power. will gain help in.
The ceasefire and hostage release agreement brokered by Qatar and the United States announced on Wednesday represents a watershed moment for the Israeli leader.
Since Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Netanyahu has faced sharp public criticism for not ensuring the sooner release of the hostages.
Parents of soldiers fighting in Gaza have accused Netanyahu of derailing months of efforts to end the fighting for political gain, as he battles corruption charges in a lengthy trial.
Earlier this month around 800 parents of soldiers sent him a letter saying they could no longer “allow you to continue sacrificing our children as cannon fodder”.
More than 400 soldiers have been killed in the Palestinian territories since the war began.
But far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition have threatened to abandon his administration over any ceasefire agreement and have pushed for an even tougher response in Gaza.
Despite conflicting pressures, analysts say the disruptions that have affected his mandate in recent months are unlikely to bring down the leader long seen as a political survivor.
After the October 7 attack, which killed 1,210 people, mostly civilians, Netanyahu vowed to crush Hamas and bring the hostages home.
During their attack, the militants took 251 people hostage, 94 of whom are still being held in Gaza, 34 of whom have been killed according to the Israeli military.
Although Hamas has not been defeated, Israel has destroyed its leadership and its military structure.
It has also largely weakened its Lebanese foe Hezbollah in a parallel war in the north, which has ousted the Iran-backed group’s longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah and other commanders.
Netanyahu may now find a way to use the ceasefire agreement to his advantage, potentially by moving away from the far-right coalition partners he has relied on through 2022.
The deal could also pave the way for a long-awaited normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia backed by incoming US President Donald Trump.
“What’s important is not the position, but how you play the game, and the bottom line is that (Netanyahu) is the best player in the game,” said Jonathan Reinhold, head of the political studies department at Bar-Ilan University. Tel Aviv.
Saudi deal?
Before the Hamas attack, Israeli ally the United States was close to striking a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Anshel Pfeffer, a journalist and author of a 2018 biography of Netanyahu, said, “The question is what is Netanyahu getting out of the agreement beyond the release of the hostages and a ceasefire, and that’s where we come to the Saudi question.”
He said it was possible the agreement “could be part of something bigger” between Saudi Arabia and Israel…Trump wants a deal.
While Netanyahu’s far-right allies have vowed to oppose a ceasefire, Pfeffer said it was unlikely that any disagreements in the ruling coalition would bring him down.
Nevertheless, the ceasefire would be “a moment of truth” for Netanyahu, where he could try to “move away from the far right into a coalition towards some kind of legacy-defining agreement with the Saudis”.
Having crushed Hamas and his enemies in Lebanon, Gail Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said Netanyahu no longer needs to rely on the far right.
‘Continue to harass him’
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, both far-right members of Netanyahu’s Cabinet, have expressed their opposition to the deal.
“It may well be that both Smotrich and Ben Gvir would not be part of such a deal,” Talshir said, which means that behind heavy scenes, it could be the case that Netanyahu is preparing for that day. “
He said former Defense Minister Benny Gantz, opposition leader Yair Lapid and other figures have already indicated they would support Netanyahu if he reaches an agreement to free the hostages or if he reaches a deal with Saudi Arabia. Will work together.
Political commentator and Netanyahu’s former chief of staff Aviv Bushinsky said that despite some unrest generated by the ceasefire, “politically, it is not a game changer”.
Nonetheless, the Oct. 7 attack will continue to weigh on Netanyahu, he said.
“The prime minister would like people to remember those whom he managed to bring back, but not those whom he was unable to bring back,” Bushinski said.
He added, “But this will continue to haunt them…This would be the first time since the establishment of Israel” that its forces were unable to rescue missing civilians.
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
