A week after the US-Israeli war against Iran, US President Donald Trump faces mounting military, economic and political risks that could complicate efforts to turn early battlefield gains into a broader geopolitical victory. Despite major attacks on Iranian forces and the assassination of its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the crisis has rapidly escalated into a regional conflict, raising the prospect of prolonged US military involvement with consequences beyond Washington’s control. Analysts say the unfolding situation contrasts with Trump’s earlier preference for limited operations, such as the raid in Venezuela in January and the strike on Iran’s nuclear sites in June.“Iran is in for a disorganized and potentially protracted military campaign,” Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington told Reuters. Trump is endangering the global economy, regional stability and his Republican Party’s performance in the US midterm elections.
obscure end game
Trump has long promised to keep the United States out of “foolish” military interventions. However, analysts say the Iran campaign, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, has become the largest US military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.According to Reuters, critics argue that the administration has not yet clearly outlined its ultimate goals or a detailed strategy for victory.White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly rejected that assessment, saying Trump’s objectives were clear – “destroying Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, dismantling their navy, eliminating their ability to arm proxies, and preventing them from ever acquiring nuclear weapons.”
political risk at home
At the moment, much of Trump’s MAGA base continues to support the war, despite criticism from some supporters who oppose foreign military intervention.But analysts say support could weaken if the conflict prolongs or American casualties increase. Opinion polls show that many voters, including a major faction of independents, are wary of another protracted war in the Middle East. “The American people have no interest in repeating the mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan,” Republican strategist Brian Darling was quoted by Reuters. “The MAGA base is divided between those who trust promises of no new wars and those who are loyal to Trump’s decisions.” Six US service members are reported to have been killed so far in the conflict. Asked in a Time magazine interview about the possibility of Iran-inspired attacks in the US, Trump said: “I think… as I said, some people will die.” Jonathan Panikoff, the former US national intelligence officer for the Middle East, warned that US casualties could become a turning point. “Nothing is more likely to end the war more quickly than American casualties…that’s what Iran is counting on,” he said.
regional growth
The war has already escalated beyond Iran and Israel, with Iran launching retaliatory attacks across the region targeting several Middle Eastern countries in the wake of the attacks on US and Israeli military facilities. Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia has resumed hostilities with Israel, opening another front in the conflict and underscoring Tehran’s ability to mobilize allied groups despite the loss of leadership.Trump has also sent mixed signals on whether Washington is pursuing regime change in Tehran. Initially suggesting that Iran’s leadership could be overthrown through internal rebellion, he later stopped supporting that goal.However, Trump told Reuters he could play a role in selecting Iran’s next leader and encouraged Iranian Kurdish rebels to attack. He later demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” in a social media post.
Oil and economic impact
One of the most immediate concerns for policymakers is the threat to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which about a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.Iran has halted tanker traffic amid the conflict, raising fears of wider economic consequences if the disruption continues. However, Tehran later said the vital shipping route would be closed only to American, Israeli and European vessels. Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council think tank said, “This is an economic burden on the American economy that seems to have been completely unanticipated.”A former US military official told Reuters that the economic fallout troubled some in the administration because oil market experts were not widely consulted before the attacks.
question on strategy
Some analysts believe Trump miscalculated that the Iran operation would unfold similarly to the earlier Venezuela operation, where US special forces captured President Nicolas Maduro and gained influence over the country’s oil resources without prolonged military action.However, Iran has proven to be a more resilient opponent with a deeply entrenched political and security establishment. Even the joint US-Israeli strike that killed Khamenei and other senior leaders did not stop Iran from retaliating, raising questions about whether more radicals could replace the current leadership.Retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges told the agency that although the US military’s tactics have been effective, the broader strategy remains uncertain. “From a political, strategic and diplomatic point of view, it doesn’t seem to have been fully thought through,” he said.
Gulf allies and regional concerns
The conflict also puts pressure on Gulf Arab states, which host U.S. military bases and have pledged significant investment to the United States.While many Gulf governments have aligned themselves with Washington following Iranian missile and drone attacks, concerns remain in the region about the broader consequences of war.In an open letter to Trump, UAE businessman Khalaf Al Habtoor wrote: “Who gave you the right to turn our territory into a battlefield?”With the cost of the operation rising, with the US already spending about $3.7 billion by the first week according to CSIS, and the duration uncertain, Trump has said the operation could last “four or five weeks” or “whatever it takes”, though he has not specified what the next phase of the strategy would involve.