Is Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal running out?The Middle East is under threat after US President Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury and Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion targeted Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure, killing longtime Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering a wave of retaliation from Tehran across the region.Since then, Iran has launched missile and drone attacks against US military bases, Israel and several Gulf countries. But a new report suggests that Tehran’s most powerful weapon, its ballistic missile power, may already be under severe strain.
According to a report by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), a US-based think tank, the US and Israeli strikes have sharply reduced Iran’s missile launch capability in the ongoing war.
Missile attacks decline sharply
JINSA said Iranian ballistic missile launches have dropped by about 90 percent since the conflict began. Attacks targeting Israel alone have declined by approximately 88 percent.The report also said Iran fired more missiles on the first day of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion last year than in the first five days of the current war.The US Operation Epic Fury and Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion have reduced Iran’s daily missile fire almost three times faster than before the 2025 conflict, the think tank said.
Launcher becoming the weak link
A major reason for the decline is the destruction of missile launchers. JINSA estimates that about 75 percent of Iran’s launch capability has been destroyed in the short term.The launchers have become the main obstacle to Iran’s missile campaigns. Every time Iran launches missiles, American and Israeli forces get another opportunity to locate and destroy the remaining launch systems.As a result, Iran has shifted from large missile barrages to smaller and infrequent attacks.
reserves are under pressure
Iran entered the war with significant missile stockpiles – approximately 2,000 medium-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel and 6,000 to 8,000 short-range missiles used against regional targets.However, ongoing attacks have destroyed many missiles and disrupted the logistics needed to move them from storage to launch sites.The loss of medium-range missiles is particularly damaging because these systems were designed specifically to target Israel and cannot be easily replaced with shorter-range weapons.JINSA said that at the current rate of losses, Iran could lose its ability to fire these missiles at Israel within a few days to a week.
Strategy shifts towards Gulf goals
The report also said Iran has spread its attacks across the region rather than focusing only on Israel. By also targeting Gulf countries, Tehran may try to increase pressure on US allies and expand the political influence of the conflict.This approach also requires different missiles – longer-range systems for Israel and shorter-range missiles for the Gulf states.
Drones and proxies are likely in the next phase
With its missile launch capability diminished, Iran is expected to increasingly rely on drones and associated proxy groups.Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Houthis in Yemen could play a bigger role in attacks on Israel, US forces and Gulf countries.JINSA said Iran could still launch an occasional missile attack or even attempt a major attack. But such an attack would quickly deplete its remaining launchers.Overall, the report concludes that Iran’s missile campaign will continue to shrink as US and Israeli strikes destroy launchers and disrupt supply lines – forcing Tehran to rely more on drones and proxy warfare to maintain pressure on its adversaries.