The war between Israel and the armed group Hezbollah is expected to reduce Lebanon’s national wealth based on gross domestic product by 9%, the United Nations said on Wednesday, with the scale of hostilities and economic consequences exceeding the previous war in 2006. Will happen.
The UN Development Programme’s rapid assessment of the conflict’s impact on Lebanon’s GDP was released a day before the summit, hosted by France, to help boost international support for Lebanon.
UNDP said it expected the conflict to last until the end of 2024, which would increase the government’s financing needs by 30% in a country already in deep crisis before the violence began.
“GDP is estimated to decline by 9.2% compared to a no-war scenario, indicating a significant decline in economic activity as a direct result of the conflict (about $2 billion),” the report said. ”
UNDP said that even if the war ends in 2024, the consequences will last for years, with GDP likely to decline by 2.28% in 2025 and 2.43% in 2026.
Lebanon was already struggling with a four-year economic recession and political crisis when Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel last year in support of its Palestinian ally Hamas.
In late September, Israel dramatically increased bombing across Lebanon, now regularly attacking the southern suburbs of Beirut, major cities in southern Lebanon, and parts of the eastern Bekaa Valley, including the border with Syria.
Hezbollah and Israel last fought in 2006, when a months-long conflict devastated Lebanon’s south and the capital’s southern suburbs and required international help to rebuild.
UNDP said damage to physical infrastructure, housing and productive capabilities such as factories would likely be close to the 2006 war estimate, which was between $2.5 billion and $3.6 billion. But it warned of major overall losses to Lebanon.
“The scale of military involvement, the geopolitical context, the humanitarian impact and the economic fallout in 2024 are expected to be far greater than in 2006,” it said.
The UNDP report said the closure of border crossings important for trade would lead to a 21% decline in trade activity, and is expected to lead to job losses in the tourism, agriculture and construction sectors.
It said Lebanon had already suffered “massive environmental damage” in the past year, including from unexploded ordnance and contamination from potentially hazardous materials, particularly the use of white phosphorus in southern Lebanon.
Government revenues are expected to decline by 9% and total investment by more than 6% during both 2025 and 2026.
As a result, increased international assistance will be essential for a lasting recovery in Lebanon, UNDP said – not only to address the increase in humanitarian needs but also to prevent long-term social and economic consequences of the conflict.
Lebanon’s minister in charge of crisis response told Reuters the country needs $250 million a month to help the more than 1.2 million people displaced by Israeli attacks.
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