According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Earth experienced its hottest day in at least 84 years, when the global average temperature reached a record high of 17.09 degrees Celsius on July 21.
This follows a series of record-breaking temperatures – June marked the 12th consecutive month when global temperatures reached or exceeded the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold. Every month since June last year has been the hottest on record.
Preliminary data from C3S showed that July 21 was the hottest day since at least 1940, beating the previous record of 17.08 degrees Celsius set on July 6, 2023.
Most importantly, there is a significant difference between the temperatures from July 2023 till now and all the previous years.
Before July 2023, the Earth’s daily average temperature record was 16.8 °C, set in August 2016. However, since July 3, 2023, there have been 57 days with temperatures higher than the previous record.
C3S director Carlo Buontempo said the difference between the temperatures of the last 13 months and previous records was staggering.
“We are now in truly uncharted territory and, as the climate continues to warm, we are likely to see new records in the months and years to come,” he said.
The analysis shows that 2023 and 2024 see a significant increase in annual maximum daily global temperature compared to previous years. The 10 years with the highest daily average temperatures are from 2015 to 2024.
The global average temperature usually peaks between late June and early August, caused by the Northern Hemisphere summer. Land masses in the Northern Hemisphere warm up faster than the Southern Hemisphere oceans cool.
Global average temperatures are already at record levels, so the new record daily average temperature was not entirely unexpected.
C3S scientists attributed the sudden increase in daily global temperatures to above-average temperatures across large parts of Antarctica. Such large anomalies are not uncommon during the Antarctic winter and may have contributed to record-setting global temperatures in early July 2023.
Antarctic sea ice extent is about the same as last year, leading to above-average temperatures in some parts of the Southern Ocean.
Since the global average temperature typically peaks between late June and early August, scientists expect it to increase and peak around July 22 or 23, 2024, then decrease thereafter.
The European Climate Agency said whether 2024 will be the hottest year ever depends largely on the development and intensity of La Niña. Although 2024 has been warm enough to surpass 2023, the exceptional heat of the last four months of 2023 means it is too early to predict which year will be hotter.
Berkeley Earth, a climate science nonprofit, estimated last week that there was a 92 percent chance that 2024 would set a new annual heat record.
It says there is a 99 per cent probability that the annual mean temperature anomaly in 2024 will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average.
At the 2015 UN climate talks in Paris, world leaders committed to limiting the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. However, permanent breaches of the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit specified in the Paris Agreement refer to long-term warming over a period of 20 or 30 years.
Earth’s global surface temperature has already risen by about 1.2 degrees Celsius due to rapidly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide and methane, in the atmosphere. This warming is believed to be the cause of record droughts, wildfires and floods around the world. PTI GVS RC
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