The United States is on edge as surveys show one of the closest presidential races in history between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Major polling stations show the candidates in a near stalemate.
In battleground states on the eve of the election, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight reported a tie of 47.8 percent in Pennsylvania, nearly the same number in Nevada and only a one-point difference in Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina.
But these extremely thin margins cannot tell the whole story.
“I wonder, is it really that close?” Professor W. of the American University in Washington. Joseph Campbell asked.
Their questions stem from pollsters’ troubled track record in recent elections and possible overreaction to past failures.
The political establishment was surprised in 2016 when Trump won despite trailing in the polls, while Joe Biden’s 2020 margin of victory proved narrower than anticipated.
In 2022, Republicans won only a slim majority in Congress, despite predictions of a “red wave”.
“The 2020 presidential election was collectively the worst for voters in forty years and, for many, an embarrassment,” Campbell said.
Trump’s emergence on the political scene largely explains these polling crashes. His supporters were consistently undercounted in 2016 and 2020, prompting polling companies to adjust their methodology.
– ‘Sad for polluters’ –
History offers an interesting parallel: In 1980, polls showed incumbent Jimmy Carter in a tight race with Ronald Reagan. Reagan ultimately won by 10 points, benefiting from a late surge while Carter lost support to a third-party candidate.
“I’m not saying it’s going to be the model in 2024, but it’s something to keep in mind,” Campbell said.
Prominent polling analysts openly acknowledged these challenges.
Nate Cohn, chief political analyst and polling director of The New York Times, wrote, “No, you can’t trust the polls… You can’t safely assume that the candidate leading in the polls is going to win.”
Cohn noted that pollsters are working to correct systemic biases that have emerged in the Trump era.
“It’s hard to overstate how painful the 2016 and 2020 elections were for many pollsters. For some, another undermining of Trump could be a major threat to their business and their livelihood.”
However, he warned that while adjusting methods to better capture Trump voters, pollsters may now be underestimating Harris.
Cohn concluded, “On balance, these changes add to the case for cautious optimism over improved accuracy, but there are no guarantees.”
Some experts suspect that pollsters may be victims of groupthink or “herding”, adjusting results that deviate significantly from the consensus.
Professors Joshua Clinton and John Lapinski warned NBC News: “State elections are showing not only a surprisingly tight competition, but an impossibly tight competition.”
He suggests that “a risk-averse pollster who finds a 5-point margin in a race they believe is tied may choose to ‘adjust’ the results somewhat closer to other polls.” It is possible that his external survey may adversely affect his reputation. ..
He said this raises an important question: “Is 2024 going to be close to 2020 because our politics are stable, or will the elections in 2024 just look like the 2020 results because of the decisions that state pollsters make?” Are you taking it?”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
