The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by Israel has left Iran with a serious dilemma – how to deal with the loss of an important ally and still maintain its regional influence.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah group, long armed and funded by Iran, confirmed Nasrallah’s death on Saturday, after Israel said it had “eliminated” him in an airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburbs.
His death was the sharpest escalation in nearly a year of cross-border exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel since the Gaza conflict began, and risks plunging the entire region into broader war.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed that Nasrallah’s death “will not be in vain”, and First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said it would bring Israel’s “destruction”.
Iran also vowed to avenge the killing of Revolutionary Guards General Abbas Nilforoshan, who was killed along with the Hezbollah leader.
Karim Sajjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment said, “Nasrallah has been crucial to Iran’s rise to power.” He said Hezbollah remains the “crown jewel” of the Islamic Republic’s regional allies.
Ali Waze of the International Crisis Group said his killing “does not change the fact that Iran still does not want to be directly involved in the ongoing conflict”.
But this put Iran in a “serious dilemma”, Waze said, especially as the group’s deterrence capability with respect to Israel was now “completely in disarray”.
economic crisis
For Mehdi Zakarian, a Tehran-based international relations professor, the developments showed that the Iran-aligned Resistance Front was “not only unable to stop Israel, but also suffered a serious blow”.
Nasrallah’s death came nearly two months after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political head of the Palestinian group Hamas, in Tehran in late July, where he had attended the inauguration of President Massoud Pezeshkian.
Iran blamed Israel for his death and vowed to retaliate.
Zakarian says rebuilding Hezbollah will be no small feat for Tehran amid growing economic challenges.
“If the government wants to get involved in rebuilding Lebanon or re-equipping Hezbollah, it would increase Iran’s economic crisis,” he said.
Iran is struggling with the economic impact of international sanctions, which have contributed to rising inflation, high unemployment and a record low rate of the Iranian rial against the US dollar.
Pezeshkian’s government has promoted efforts to ease crippling sanctions and help revive the landmark 2015 nuclear deal, which collapsed when the United States unilaterally withdrew from the accord three years later.
Analysts have said Iran has been moving cautiously since the Gaza conflict began and is trying to project power without provoking a US response.
Even during its first direct attack on Israel in April – in retaliation for an airstrike on Tehran’s embassy in Damascus – most of the projectiles were intercepted by Israeli defense or allied forces.
Iran said at the time that it had informed the United States and given neighboring countries 72 hours’ warning before its “limited” attack on Israel.
Nevertheless, Waze said that Iran “has every interest in trying to preserve whatever remains of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is Iran’s shield.”
He said, “I don’t think the Iranians will abandon nearly 40 years of investment in this project overnight just because a dozen people were laid off.”
‘Weak and insignificant’
And “Iran cannot abandon Hezbollah, because in that case it would lose its other allies as well”, Zakarian said.
Iran-backed militant groups in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen have joined rising regional tensions since Israel’s war against Hamas began.
Another major dilemma Iran may face is communications and arms transfers with Hezbollah, analysts say.
On Friday, Israel’s military vowed to stop Iran from supplying weapons to Hezbollah through Beirut airport, and said its fighters were patrolling the skies above.
Political commentator Mossadegh Mossadeghpour said, “It is now too late for Iran to support Hezbollah with arms.”
But he said he believed the group would “repair itself as it has done in the past”.
Hezbollah’s internal communications also suffered a major setback when sabotage attacks this month targeted members’ pagers and walkie-talkies.
Waze believes that unlike the 33-day war in 2006 between Israel and Hezbollah, it will now be “very difficult” for the Iranians to communicate with their allies.
He said the increase in violence with Israel has seen a “weak and meager” response from Hezbollah.
“The question is whether they are unwilling or unable to take action,” he said.
Waze says it appears that Iran is hoping that Hezbollah “will work together… and launch a significant attack on Israel to demonstrate that it is still standing.”
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
