Iran’s leadership and allies are bracing for what they will regard as a dire outcome of the impending US presidential election: the return of Donald Trump to power.
Opinion polls show that Republican Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris remain in a close race. But Iranian leaders and their regional allies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen are worried that Trump could win on November 5 and that could lead to more trouble for them.
According to Iranian, Arab and Western officials, Iran’s main concern is Trump’s decision to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into using his “maximum pressure policy” through attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites, targeted killings, and increased sanctions on its oil industry. ” has the potential to be empowering to reapply.
They predict that Trump, who was president from 2017-21, will put immense pressure on Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to accept a nuclear control deal on the terms set by him and Israel.
This potential change in US leadership could have far-reaching implications for the balance of power in the Middle East and reshape Iran’s foreign policy and economic prospects.
Analysts argue that whether the next US administration is led by Harris or Trump, Iran will lack the advantage it had before – largely due to Israel’s years-long military campaign aimed at suppressing targets including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The armed representatives of the Islamic Republic were to be humiliated. ,
However, he said Trump’s stance is considered more damaging to Iran because of his more automatic support for Israel.
“Trump will either put very tough conditions on Iran or allow Israel to carry out targeted attacks on its nuclear facilities,” said Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Center think-tank. He is fully supportive of military action against Iran. Are.”
“Bringing Trump back to the White House is Netanyahu’s dream day,” he told Reuters.
Poison chalice?
A senior Iranian official, declining to be named, told Reuters that Tehran “is prepared for all scenarios. We have (for decades) consistently found ways to export oil, bypassing tough US sanctions… and the rest “We have strengthened our relations with the countries.” It didn’t matter to the world who was in the White House.”
But another Iranian official said a Trump victory “would be a nightmare. He would increase pressure on Iran to appease Israel…, making sure oil sanctions are fully enforced. If so, (our ) the establishment will be financially crippled.”
In a campaign speech in October, Trump expressed his reluctance to go to war with Iran, but in response to Iran’s missile attack on Israel on October 1 said that Israel should “strike the Iranians first with a nuclear strike and then take care of the rest.” “We should worry about it later.”
Israel retaliated on 26 October by launching airstrikes against Iranian military targets, particularly missile production sites.
Analysts say Iran’s options going forward are limited.
“The reality is this: Trump is going to support Netanyahu and give him the green light to do whatever he wants,” said Hasan Hasan, an author and researcher on Islamic groups. “Trump is much worse for Iran (than Harris).”
Hassan said Washington has assigned a large share of responsibility to Israel in the conflict with Iran and its proxies, in which Israel is taking the lead. “The United States is involved enough that it is supporting Israel, maybe more than ever.
“Things are very bad for Iran this time. Both Republicans and Democrats see Iran as a problem.”
During her campaign, Harris described Iran as a “dangerous” and “destabilizing” force in the Middle East and said the United States was committed to Israel’s security. He said the US would work with allies to disrupt Iran’s “aggressive behaviour”.
But according to two regional officials, Trump’s re-election would be a “poisoned chalice” for Khamenei.
If he reinstates tough sanctions, Khamenei could be forced to negotiate and accept a nuclear deal more favorable to US and Israel’s terms to preserve theocratic rule in Iran, under increasing foreign pressure. and facing massive protests domestically. In recent years.
A US-Saudi defense agreement involving Riyadh establishing diplomatic ties with Israel, now in its final negotiation stages, also poses a significant challenge for Khamenei.
The alliance threatens to alter the regional balance of power by creating a more unified front against Iran, which will impact its geopolitical position and strategy in the Middle East.
new architecture
Hassan said the recent attacks on Iran and its allies were widely considered a significant success for Israel. They provided insight into what a limited attack on Iran might look like, set a precedent, and changed perceptions that military action on Iran would inevitably provoke a broader Middle East war.
A senior Arab security official said Tehran can no longer “extend its influence through its armed proxies” in the wake of Israel’s deadly attacks on Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.
For its part, Iran has every reason to fear another Trump term.
It was Trump who in 2018 unilaterally pulled the US out of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Khamenei’s right-hand man and the mastermind of foreign attacks on the US and allied interests.
Trump also imposed punitive sanctions targeting Iran’s oil export revenues and international banking transactions, causing extreme economic hardship and increasing public discontent in the Islamic Republic.
He frequently said during his presidential campaign that President Joe Biden’s policy of not strictly enforcing oil export sanctions has weakened Washington and emboldened Tehran, allowing it to sell oil, hoard cash and raise armed militias. Through this means, it has been allowed to expand its nuclear activities and influence.
In March, he told Israel’s Hayom newspaper in an interview that Iran could have a nuclear weapon in 35 days and that Israel—which views Iran’s nuclear activity as an existential threat, is widely believed to have The pass is the only nuclear weapon in the area – in “very” condition. Treacherous and dangerous neighbourhood”.
An Arab government adviser said that Tehran recognizes that “a new architecture is being formed”, but also that Trump, despite his tough rhetoric, realizes that there is no alternative to a deal with Iran given its accelerated uranium enrichment program. Not there.
“Trump could aim for a new nuclear deal, he could say I tore up the 2015 deal because it was incomplete and replace it with a longer-term deal, calling it ‘America again,'” the adviser said. “To make America great” and protect American interests. Said.
As the 2015 agreement has weakened over the years, Iran has increased the level of fissile purity in enriched uranium, allowing it to cut the time needed to build a nuclear bomb if it so chooses, although it is reluctant to do so. Denies desire.
The government news website Iran Online said that when Trump left office, Iran was limiting enrichment under the deal to 3.67 percent, well below 90 percent of weapons grade.
Now, Iran has “enriched uranium up to 60% with the IR-6 advanced centrifuge” and “could achieve nuclear weapons capability within a few weeks… completing the nuclear deterrence cycle is Iran’s biggest move against Trump.” is the trump card,” it said.
Arab and Western officials have warned that the more Iran signals that it is closer to developing a nuclear bomb, the more they provoke the need to attack Israel.
“If Trump takes office again, he will support Israeli plans to attack Iranian nuclear facilities,” a Western official said.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
