India’s population is projected to reach nearly 1.7 billion by the early 2060s and decline by 12 per cent thereafter, but the country will remain the world’s most populous nation throughout the century, the United Nations has said.
The World Population Prospects 2024 report released here on Thursday said the world population is expected to continue growing over the next 50-60 years, reaching a peak of about 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s from 8.2 billion in 2024. After the peak, the global population is projected to begin a gradual decline, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century.
India, which overtook China last year to become the world’s most populous country, will remain in that position until 2100.
“India’s population, expected to remain the world’s largest throughout the century, will likely decline by about 12 per cent after reaching its peak of 1.7 billion in the early 2060s,” says the UN report published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA).
According to the report, India’s population is projected to be 1.45 billion in 2024, rising to 1.69 billion in 2054. After this, India’s population is projected to decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the century in 2100, but the country will still remain the most populous nation on Earth.
Responding to a PTI query on India’s population projections, Claire Menozzi, Senior Population Officer, Population Division, UN DESA, said at a press conference that “India is currently the most populous country in the world, and is projected to remain so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated at 1.45 billion, and is projected to grow further to 1.69 billion.”
“It is believed that it will peak around the 2060s and then start declining slightly. So India’s population is projected to be around 1.5 billion by the end of the century but it will still remain the world’s largest country.” China’s population, currently at 1.41 billion in 2024, will decline to 1.21 billion in 2054 and further to 633 million by 2100, the report said.
“It is estimated that China, currently the world’s second most populous country, will experience the largest absolute population loss (204 million) between 2024 and 2054,” followed by Japan (21 million) and Russia (10 million). “Long-term population projections are more uncertain” for China, it said.
“However, because of its large size and continued low levels of fertility, China is expected to record the largest population decline of any country by the end of the century (786 million people). By 2100, China is projected to lose more than half of its current population and return to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s (50 percent probability).”
Responding to a question on the significantly lower population estimates for China, John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division at the UN DESA, said that “this is actually related to the level of fertility that is currently seen in China. The current number is around one birth per woman in an average lifetime.”
“Given that you need 2.1 births to maintain the current population without migration, if fertility stays at this low level, even if it comes up a little bit, any fertility level below two, or particularly below 1.8 or below 1.5, you’re getting into really low fertility levels and that tends to decline quite a bit over the long run. And that’s true for China. It’s true for some of the other countries in this analysis as well,” Wilmoth said.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
