The shocking developments following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina as Bangladesh Prime Minister have put India in a very difficult position. Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security last night to discuss the situation in Bangladesh, which has huge strategic implications for New Delhi. The Centre is yet to publicly state how it plans to deal with this neighbouring crisis and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar briefed MPs on this at an all-party meeting today. Here’s why the situation in Bangladesh is difficult for India:
Sheikh Hasina is in India
Ms Hasina landed at Delhi’s Hindon airbase after fleeing Dhaka amid turmoil and is likely to fly to the UK today to seek political asylum. However, there is no confirmation whether the UK has offered her asylum or not, so it is unclear what will happen if Britain does not give her the green signal. In its response to the situation in Bangladesh, London has only called for a UN-led investigation but has not touched upon the asylum issue. The question then is whether Ms Hasina will stay in India or seek another destination. India now faces a diplomatic dilemma and does not want to be seen openly supporting the ousted leader as this could complicate its relationship with the new dispensation in Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina’s history of relations with India is also significant. Much before she became prime minister, the Indira Gandhi government had granted her asylum when her entire family, including her father Mujibur Rahman, was killed during the unrest in Bangladesh in 1975. Therefore, considering his equations with Delhi, leaving him at this time will not be an easy decision.
A friend lost his power
New Delhi has found a friend in Bangladesh in Sheikh Hasina and New Delhi-Dhaka relations have improved significantly during her successive tenures since 2009. From road and rail connectivity to border management and defence cooperation, ties between India and Bangladesh have strengthened during this time. When protests against Ms Hasina were gaining momentum in Bangladesh, India’s response was that it was an “internal matter”. With the 76-year-old leader removed from office, India will now have to build ties with the new Dhaka government. Bangladesh Army Chief Waqar-uz-Zaman said yesterday that an interim government would be formed to run the country’s affairs. It is not clear what role the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami, which had supported the protests in Bangladesh, will play in the new government. Neither of these parties are friends of India. The tenure of BNP chief Khaleda Zia was a difficult phase in Delhi-Dhaka relations. Khaleda Zia, who was released from jail after Sheikh Hasina was ousted from power, has in the past used her anti-India stance as an election issue and has insisted that New Delhi is interfering in Bangladesh’s internal politics. On the other hand, Jamaat has close ties with Pakistan and India will be closely monitoring developments in Dhaka.
Fear of influx of refugees
Amid reports of violence against minorities in Bangladesh, a major concern for India is the influx of large numbers of refugees fleeing atrocities. India and Bangladesh share a 4,096-km-long border that is very porous. The influx of Bangladeshi refugees has been a major issue in India, especially in the Northeast and West Bengal.
The Border Security Force (BSF) has issued a high alert along the international border following yesterday’s developments in Bangladesh. Tripura Tipra Motha leader Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma has said that he has spoken to Union Home Minister Amit Shah and has been assured that infiltration will not be allowed.
a troubled neighborhood
A major challenge for India is the geopolitical consequences of the turmoil in Dhaka. With Bangladesh slipping out of the control of the Awami League, India is watching who comes to power. Jamaat-e-Islami and BNP may be more aligned with China, and Beijing will not miss any opportunity to fish in troubled waters. This is not good news for India’s strategic outlook in the region. The last few years have seen turmoil in India’s neighbourhood, be it Sri Lanka or Myanmar or Afghanistan and now Bangladesh. China and Pakistan have formed a bloc and the new dispensation in some countries, for example Maldives, suggests that they are more aligned with this bloc than New Delhi. In Afghanistan, the return of the Taliban has put an end to India’s strong ties with the previous government. Amid this, the increase in diplomatic ties with Dhaka was a ray of hope, but yesterday it changed and India will now have to go back to the drawing board to deal with this new crisis.
