Excerpts from the chat:
Nifty’s rally on Wednesday was followed by another round of selling on Thursday before a surprise recovery reversed course towards the end of the session. Does the market remain in sell-on-rise mode? What are the signals for traders in the April series?
Despite the forced downside gap opening that dragged the Nifty to recent lows, the pullback in the opening hour was enough to spook the bears. Not only was a bear regrouping avoided, the continued recovery helped it reclaim the 23700 mark. This is lower than our pivot of 23770, but we are encouraged by the fact that traders took the approach of ignoring the long weekend amid conflicting signals on the war front. This increases our willingness to play a move to 24400 if 23770 gives way. An inability to do so would put 21900 back on the radar, but such a fall is unlikely.
Nifty Bank’s fall was sharper as RBI tightened forex norms. How do you trade the index ahead of the RBI MPC meeting where no change in repo rate is likely?
Generally, after the MPC results where RBI moved from rate cut to unchanged, Bank Nifty has shown limited reaction on the announcement day but positive follow-up thereafter, Bank Nifty has clearly outperformed. On average, the Bank Nifty has responded more constructively by delivering robust one-month gains of 1-1.5% and ~7%. Overall, the post-cut status quo for Bank Nifty has historically been decidedly bullish, especially in the short to medium term.
Bank Nifty is showing early signs of short-term stabilization after a sharp corrective phase. Price action suggests that selling pressure is gradually waning, with the index attempting to form a base near recent lows. Momentum indicators are showing signs of slowing downside momentum, suggesting a technical bounce is likely if support levels hold. Any sustained move above the immediate resistance zone could trigger short-covering and additional buying, leading to a near-term relief rally. While the broader trend remains cautious, the current framework favors a short-term recovery. Also, index majors like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and SBI have formed weekly long-legged doges indicating a possible near-term reversal that could help Bank Nifty move towards 52500-53500 levels.
Tata Motors CV was one of the worst hit stocks in the short holiday weekend. Are you seeing more sales pressure?
TMCV was disappointing, especially considering the fact that the broader market made a strong recovery on Thursday, and the stock failed to bring much positivity around. And yet, the hammer formation following a pullback below the lower Bollinger Band encourages us to look for up-swings rather than fear a regrouping of sellers.
Shares of Avenue Supermarts saw continuous buying in 3 consecutive sessions. Does it look like the start of an uptrend here?
Consecutive days of uptrend is a positive sign despite overall market volatility. Further, successive closes above the 200-day SMA confirm the positivity. This prompts us to look at 4560, an upside head and shoulders breakout objective as a playable upmove target with a stop loss below 4000.
Give us your top trading ideas for the week.
MSTCLTD (CMP:407)
See: Buy
Target: 422 – 435
SL: 393
The stock is showing early signs of a positive reversal after forming a base near key support levels. Prices have stabilized above recent lows with momentum improving on the oscillator, suggesting that selling pressure is easing. A sustained move above the immediate resistance zone could spark fresh buying interest and pave the way for a gradual recovery towards the 422-435 target zone. The structure suggests a favorable risk-reward setup at current levels, as losses appear limited while upside potential opens. As long as the stock remains above the stop-loss set at 393, the bullish view remains intact. Traders may look for follow-through buying on minor dips as sentiment improves and technical indicators continue to align positively.
EIHOTEL (CMP:288)
See: Buy
Target: 298 – 305
SL: 276
The stock has shown a clear sign of a reversal with a strong weekly hammer candle, indicating buying interest emerging near the lows. This price action suggests that the downside momentum is weakening and the bulls are beginning to regain control. Volume and structure suggest accumulation around recent support zones, improving the potential for a short-term recovery. As long as the price remains above the immediate support, the setup favors a bounce towards the 298-305 zone, where supply may re-emerge. A stop-loss set at 276 keeps risk well contained, offering an attractive risk-reward profile. Overall, the weekly hammer above the support area signals a potential trend reversal, boosting the stock into a good-position in the coming sessions if follow-through buying continues.
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