The alleged Israeli attack on Hezbollah members via their pagers is another ominous incident that is pushing the Middle East towards a full-scale regional war. This leaves Hezbollah no choice but to retaliate with the full support of the Iran-led “axis of resistance.” The sophistication and impact of the pager targeting is unprecedented. The attack killed at least 11 people, including some Hezbollah fighters, and injured more than 3,000.
The main objective of the attack, which US officials have reportedly said was carried out by Israel, was to disrupt Hezbollah’s communications and command and control systems in Lebanon.
As Hezbollah has reduced the use of mobile phones by its forces because they can easily be tracked and targeted by Israel, the pager has increasingly become the preferred messaging device within the group.
The attack was possibly designed to spread panic within the group and among the Lebanese public, most of whom do not support Hezbollah due to political divisions in the country.
Since Hamas’ attacks on southern Israel on October 7, the Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said it is determined to eliminate the threat posed by Hezbollah, which is acting in solidarity with Hamas.
Hours before the pager attack, Netanyahu’s government made clear that Israel’s war goals would include the return of thousands of residents to their homes in northern Israel, where they have fled because of persistent rocket attacks from Hezbollah. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said military action was the only way to do that.
The simultaneous pager explosions on Tuesday may have been a prelude to an all-out Israeli offensive against Hezbollah.
Consequences of the war with Hezbollah
Hezbollah has already announced that it will retaliate. What form this will take remains to be seen. The group has enough military capability to attack not only northern Israel with drones and missiles but also other parts of the Jewish state, including densely populated cities like Tel Aviv.
Hezbollah showed this capability in the 2006 war with Israel. The war lasted 34 days, during which 165 Israelis were killed (121 IDF soldiers and 44 civilians) and Israel’s economy and tourism industry suffered significant damage. Hezbollah and the Lebanese suffered far greater losses, with at least 1,100 people killed. However, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) failed to destroy or disable the group.
Any successful retaliatory strikes on Israeli cities would likely result in serious civilian casualties, giving Israel another excuse to pursue its long-term objective of destroying Hezbollah and punishing its main supporter, the Islamic Republic of Iran.
In the wider conflict, the United States is committed to defending Israel, while Iran will support Hezbollah in every way possible. If Israeli and American leaders think Iran will continue to refrain from any action that could push it into a war with Israel and the US, they are mistaken.
Hezbollah is a central part of the regime’s national and regional security paradigm. Tehran has invested heavily in the group, as well as in other regional allies – Iraqi militias, the Yemeni Houthis and Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime. This “axis of resistance” aims to build a strong deterrent against Israel and the US.
Since its founding 45 years ago, the Iranian regime has regarded Israel and its main backer, the United States, as an existential threat, just as Israel has regarded Iran. To this end, the regime has turned its foreign relations toward America’s main adversaries, especially Russia and China. Indeed, Russo-Iranian military cooperation has become so strong that Moscow would have no hesitation in supporting Iran and its allies in any war.
Tehran is fully aware of Israel’s nuclear power. To avoid this, Iran has developed its nuclear program so much that it has reached the threshold of making weapons. Iranian leaders may also have received assurances from Russia that if Israel uses its nuclear weapons, it will help defend Iran.
Meanwhile, it is important to remember that nearly a year after demolishing Gaza and devastating its inhabitants, Israel has still not been able to dismantle Hamas.
Its own actions testify to this. It has repeatedly forced Gazans to relocate so that IDF troops can operate in areas it had previously declared free of combatants.
Defeating Hezbollah and its supporters would be a much more important goal. This carries the serious risk of war, which all sides say they do not want, but which all are preparing for.
The pager attack is the latest in a series of actions that continue to threaten any prospect of a lasting ceasefire in Gaza that could bring stability to the region and promote peace instead of war.
,Author: Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies at the Australian National University)
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
