Experts say Palestinian governing group Hamas will likely replace Yahya Sinwar with a new political leader based outside Gaza, while his brother – Mohammed Sinwar – is expected to play a bigger role in directing the war against Israel in the region. Is.
In its leadership deliberations, Hamas must consider not only the priorities of its main supporter – Iran – but also the interests of the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, where all of the main leaders who took over as Politburo chiefs Candidates currently reside.
Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7, 2023 attack that sparked the devastating Gaza war, was killed by Israeli forces in an encounter on Wednesday – the second time in less than three months that Hamas has lost its top leader.
Its previous head, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated by Israel in Iran in July.
When Sinwar replaced him, he combined both military and political leadership in Gaza, but that does not seem possible this time.
After more than a year of brutal Israeli attacks that have devastated Hamas, killing thousands of its fighters and killing senior figures both inside and outside Gaza, it is not clear how the Islamist group will respond to this latest setback. How will it emerge?
Sinwar’s deputy Khalil al-Hayya, who is seen as a possible successor, made a defiant remark on Friday that Israeli hostages would not be returned until Israeli troops withdrew from Gaza and the war ended. Does not end.
Hamas has a history of replacing its fallen leaders quickly and efficiently, with its top decision-making body, the Shura Council, tasked with naming a new head.
The Shura Council represents all Hamas members in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Israeli prisons and the Palestinian community, meaning the new leader must have the authority to enter ceasefire talks, even if he is not in Gaza, where Hamas gunmen are still holding dozens of people. Israeli hostage.
Besides Hayya, who is Hamas’ chief negotiator, the other main leadership contenders are Khaled Meshaal, Haniyeh’s predecessor, and Mohammed Darwish, a little-known figure who is chairman of the Shura Council, according to analysts and a Hamas source.
Hamas will need to inform Qatar and other regional capitals before its decision, the source said, which has played a leading role in the so-far fruitless ceasefire talks.
division of duties
Ashraf Aboulhoul, an expert on Palestinian affairs, expected Sinwar’s responsibilities to be divided between two roles – one overseeing military affairs and the other running a political office, responsible for international contacts and shaping policies.
“Iran is Hamas’s strongest ally, supporting the group with money and weapons, and their blessing is crucial to Sinwar’s successor,” said Abouelhoul, managing editor of Al-Ahram, the state-owned newspaper in Egypt.
He expects Hamas to stick to key demands in future ceasefire talks, primarily that Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza and stop the fighting. But it could show more flexibility on some terms, such as the details of any deal that would swap Israeli hostages for Palestinians held by Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Sinwar’s killing a milestone, but the war is not over yet, saying fighting will continue until the hostages are released.
Hamas was founded in 1987 and is an offshoot of the Sunni Islamist Muslim Brotherhood movement. Its decisions are generally taken by consensus within Hamas organizations.
With Sinwar’s death, Hamas leadership for Gaza has temporarily passed to his Qatar-based deputy Hayya.
But experts say the ongoing war and communications difficulties may impose limits on how much day-to-day contact Hayya can have with those on the ground, leaving the armed wing – the Qassam Brigades – in the driving seat.
A Hamas source said Hayya was expected to face no problems in fulfilling his role as “de facto Gaza leader”. The source said Hayya had maintained good relations with the military wing and was close to both Sinwar and Haniyah.
Palestinian political analyst Akram Attallah said he hoped the armed wing would respect Haya’s authority – even from a distance. He also expected Mohammed Sinwar to emerge as a more important figure in the armed wing and Hamas in general.
Hamas sources said Mohammed Sinwar, a veteran commander of the Qassam Brigades, rarely appears in public, has long been on Israel’s most-wanted list and has survived several attempts on his life.
According to Israeli data, Hamas-led gunmen killed 1,200 people and abducted 250 others during the October 7 attack. This prompted an Israeli attack that, according to Palestinian officials, killed more than 42,000 Palestinians, devastated Gaza and drove almost all of the population from their homes.
Sinwar’s appointment in August was seen by Hamas as a show of defiance and internal unity.
His close ties with Iran were seen as a factor in support of his candidacy. Both Darwish and Hayya are also seen as close to Tehran, whose support will be vital for Hamas to recover after the war.
Meanwhile, prominent former Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal’s prospects have dimmed due to his record of friction with Tehran after supporting the Sunni Muslim-led uprising in 2011 against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Attallah said Hayya’s ties to Iran put him in a better position than Meshaal. But if Iran softens its opposition to Meshaal, he may have a chance, he said.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
