Three Gulf sources told Reuters that Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned that their own oil facilities could become vulnerable to Tehran’s proxies if the conflict escalates. Can.
As part of their efforts to avoid getting caught in the crossfire, Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are also prohibiting Israel from flying over their airspace for any attack on Iran and keeping Washington aware of this. Has got it done. Said a person close to government circles.
Israel has promised that Iran will pay for its missile attack last week, while Tehran has said any retaliation would lead to massive destruction, raising fears of a wider war in the region that could harm the United States. Is.
The move by the Gulf countries comes after a diplomatic effort by non-Arab Shia Iran to persuade its Sunni Gulf neighbors to use its influence with Washington amid growing concerns Israel is targeting Iran’s oil production facilities. Could.
During meetings this week, Iran warned Saudi Arabia not to guarantee the security of the Gulf state’s oil facilities if Israel was given any assistance in carrying out attacks, a senior Iranian official and an Iranian diplomat told Reuters. Can.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal court, said: “The Iranians have said: ‘If the Gulf countries open their airspace to Israel, it would be an act of war.’ But (Saudi Arabia) will not allow anyone to use its airspace.”
The diplomat said Tehran has sent a clear message to Riyadh that if Israel receives any regional support against Iran, its allies in countries such as Iraq or Yemen could retaliate.
Gulf and Iranian sources said a possible Israeli attack was the focus of talks on Wednesday between the kingdom’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who was on a Gulf tour to drum up support.
A Gulf source close to government circles told Reuters the Iranian minister’s visit, along with Saudi-US communication at the defense ministry level, is part of a coordinated effort to defuse the crisis.
A person familiar with the discussions in Washington confirmed that Gulf officials were in contact with US counterparts to express concerns about the potential scope of Israel’s expected retaliation.
The White House declined to comment when asked whether Gulf governments had asked Washington to ensure Israel’s response was measured. US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talked about Israeli retaliation in a call on Wednesday, which both sides described as positive.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence official for the Middle East and now of the Atlantic Council think-tank in Washington, said: “The concerns of the Gulf states are likely to be a key point in trying to persuade Israel to engage with its Israeli counterparts.” A carefully measured response.”
Oil at risk?
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, which is de facto led by Saudi Arabia, has enough spare oil capacity to offset any loss of Iranian supply if Israeli retaliation destroyed some of the country’s facilities. .
But much of that spare capacity is in the Gulf region, so if oil facilities in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, for example, were also targeted, the world could face an oil supply problem.
Saudi Arabia is wary of an Iranian attack on its oil facilities after an attack on its Aramco oil field in 2019 shut down more than 5% of global oil supply. Iran denied involvement.
Riyadh has rapprochemented with Tehran in recent years, but trust remains an issue. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates all host US military facilities or troops.
Concerns over oil facilities and the possibility of wider regional conflict were also at the center of talks between Emirati officials and their US counterparts, another Gulf source said.
In 2022, Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen fired missiles and drones at oil refueling trucks near an oil refinery owned by UAE state oil firm ADNOC and claimed an attack.
“The Gulf countries are not allowing Israel to use their airspace. They will not allow Israeli missiles to pass and there is also an expectation that they will not attack oil facilities,” the Gulf source said.
Three Gulf sources stressed that Israel could launch attacks through Jordan or Iraq, but using Saudi, UAE or Qatari airspace was off the table and strategically unnecessary.
Analysts also noted that Israel has other options, including mid-air refueling capabilities that would enable its jets to fly from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, proceed to the Gulf and then fly back.
‘Middle of missile war’
Israel is going to calibrate its response and, as of Wednesday, had not yet decided whether it would attack Iran’s oil fields, according to two senior Israeli officials.
According to officials, this option was one of a number presented to Israeli leaders by the defense establishment.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said on Wednesday, “Our attack will be lethal, precise and, above all, surprising. They will not be able to understand what happened and how it happened. They will see the consequences.”
Three Gulf sources said Saudi Arabia has a keen interest in underpinning its position as a major oil exporter alongside oil-producing neighbors – the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain.
A second Gulf source said, “We would be in the middle of a missile war. There is grave concern, especially if an Israeli attack targeted Iran’s oil installations.”
Three Gulf sources said the Israeli attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure would have global implications, particularly for China – Iran’s top oil customer – as well as for Kamala Harris ahead of the November 5 presidential election, in which she will face Donald Trump. Are contesting elections against.
“If oil prices rise to $120 a barrel, it will damage both the US economy and Harris’s chances in the elections. So they (the Americans) will not let the oil war escalate,” the first Gulf source said.
Gulf sources said protecting all oil installations remained a challenge despite having advanced missile and Patriot defense systems, so the primary approach remained diplomatic: signaling to Iran that there was no threat from the Gulf countries.
Bernard Haeckel, a professor of Near East studies at Princeton University, said Riyadh was vulnerable “because the Iranians could attack those installations given the short distance from the mainland”.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)