The Nifty closed down 218.60 points, or 0.9%, at 24,180.80 on Friday.
Commenting on the current trends, Rajesh Bhosale, equity technical analyst at Angel One, said it was a challenging week for investors and traders, as markets experienced a broad-based sell-off across the globe, with the Nifty falling below 24,200 after two weeks. Consolidation has been particularly difficult in October, with the benchmark down more than 6% so far, he added.
“While the daily chart cannot fully capture the depth of this move, the weekly and monthly charts have shown significant distortions, indicating a possible further price correction, which will be followed by a possible period of time-wise correction,” Bhosale said, while It is crucial to see whether market sentiment rebounds or continues under pressure as we approach the festive weekend.
Factors that may affect movement when the market opens this week:
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Market 103: Mastering Trends with RMI and Techno-Funda Insights
1) Q2 earnings
390 companies will announce their July-September quarter earnings this week. It will have many Nifty companies including Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Adani Power, Ambuja Cements, Bharti Hexacom, Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL), Federal Bank, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Tata. technologies.
The market will also react to the earnings of ICICI Bank, Yes Bank, REC and IDFC First Bank, which announced their results on Saturday. Coal India announced its results late on Friday.
2) Waaree IPO Listing
D-Street will monitor the listing of Waree Energies stock on Monday. Rs. 4,321 crore IPO received overwhelming response from investors, raising Rs. 2.41 lakh crore bids came. Overall subscription was 76 times through 208 subscriptions in the institutional category and 62 times subscription in the non-institutional investor segment.
Shares of Waaree Energies in gray market at Rs. Trading with a GMP of 1,320. Considering the upper price band, the stock is expected to list with a premium of 90%.
Mainboard Afcons Infrastructure Limited IPO and SME Usha Financial Services Limited IPO opened for subscription last week and their issue will close this week.
FPIs in October so far Rs. 85,790 crore net sale of domestic equity
3) US markets
Domestic markets will take cues from their foreign peers, especially those on Wall Street. US markets ended mixed on Friday. While the Dow 30 settled down 259.96 points, or 0.61%, at 42,114.40, the S&P 500 closed down 1.74 points, or 0.03%, at 5,808.12. The Nasdaq Composite rose 103.12 points, or 0.56%, to close at 18,518.60.
4) FII/DII action
On Friday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) raised Rs. 3,036.75 crore were net sellers, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) contributed Rs. 4,159.29 crore were net buyers.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have bought Indian equities worth Rs. 85,790 crore have been net sellers, wiping out a significant chunk of overall inflows in just 8 sessions in 2024. His total investment is now Rs. 14,820 crore, which at the end of September was Rs. 1,00,245 crores.
5) Technical factors
Decoding the chart, Sharekhan analyst Jatin Gedia said the trend remains negative for the Nifty. “On the daily chart, we can observe that the Nifty, after a one-day hiatus, has resumed its downtrend. It has reached the 24,000-24,050 range, which is in line with the psychological support as well as the daily lower Bollinger Band, which is restricting. Should drop sharply from here.
The trend remains negative; However, there could be a pullback towards 24,350, which corresponds to the key hourly moving average and should be used as a selling opportunity. On the downside, 24,000 is likely to be significant from a short-term perspective,” Gedia said.
6) Rupee vs Dollar
The Indian rupee was almost unchanged on Friday, managing to hold its ground thanks to dollar selling by the Reserve Bank of India, despite weakness in Asian peers and declines in domestic stocks. The rupee closed at 84.08 against the US dollar, near its record low and almost unchanged from its previous close of 84.0775. There was little change in the currency every week.
Dollar bids from foreign banks kept the rupee under pressure, but the presence of government banks offering USD/INR kept the rupee in a narrow range, a foreign bank trader said. The currency was hovering in a range below 2 paise throughout the day’s session.
Foreign investors have sold more than $9.5 billion in domestic stocks on a net basis so far in October, while government bonds have seen outflows of $750 million.
Asian currencies were down between 0.1% and 0.7% on the day, while the dollar index was steady near 104.
“As we get closer to the US elections, the market could become more volatile, and we can expect a range of 83.90 to 84.15 for the pair in the coming week. Reserves will likely fall by $2.2 billion to $688.3 billion as the RBI continues to sell dollars. Rupee steady in the market to hold,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.
7) Crude oil
Oil prices remain critical for markets due to its impact on inflation and the rate path of global central banks, including India.
Crude oil prices remain volatile amid uncertainties surrounding the Middle East conflict. On Friday, benchmark oil prices fell.
The US WTI oil contract rose $1.50, or 2.14%, to settle at $71.69, while Brent oil futures were up $1.52, or 2.04%, at $76.05.
Higher crude oil prices do not bode well for equity markets, fueling inflationary fears.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, opinions and views given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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