In a seismic moment for the Middle East, Islamic rebels in Syria announced the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday after seizing control of Damascus, forcing him to flee and ending more than 13 years of civil war. His family’s decades of rule came to an end. The fall of Bashar al-Assad was a major blow to the influence of Russia and Iran in the heart of the region, key allies that had supported the president during critical periods of the conflict.
The end of the Assad family’s five-decade rule in Syria is set to reshape the balance of power in the region, with regional and global powers emerging to fill the power vacuum left by the dramatic regime change. According to a CNN report, while Western and Arab states, along with Israel, will try to reduce Iran’s influence in Syria, it is not possible for them to support a radical Islamic regime to replace Assad.
For Iran, the fall of Syria could break its so-called axis of resistance, which includes allied countries and militias.
What was the reason for the fall of Assad?
The rebels were reportedly encouraged to advance towards Aleppo after Israel last week weakened Hezbollah and Iran’s footprint in the region. “Because of the Lebanon war and the drawdown of Hezbollah forces, (Assad’s) regime has received less support,” Hadi al-Bahra, a Syrian opposition leader representing anti-Assad groups, told news agency Reuters in an interview.
He said Iran-backed militias also have fewer resources and Russia is providing less air cover to Assad’s forces because of its “Ukraine problem.”
what’s at stake?
iran
For years, Syria was used by Iran to expand its regional influence through proxy groups deployed in the predominantly Sunni nation. Tehran, along with its proxy Hezbollah, has helped Syrian government forces regain lost territory. The Islamic Republic also sent its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders to advise Assad’s forces, which proved helpful in keeping the president in power.
However, since the beginning of the Middle Eastern conflict after Palestinian militant group Hamas launched its attack on Israel in October last year, Hezbollah has pulled its forces from Syria to focus on its war with Israel. Iran is reportedly using supply routes into Syria to transfer weapons to its proxies fighting Israel. The fall of Aleppo and potentially other cities along the Lebanese border could disrupt those routes, putting Iran in a difficult position. Losing Syria would be “a major blow” to Iran, according to experts.
“The investment that the Iranians have made in Syria is very significant, it’s an important land bridge to Lebanon, but the Iranians’ alliance with the Assad regime is the oldest in the history of the Islamic Republic,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Washington, D.C. ” -based Quincy Institute told CNN.
According to the report, Iran would like to use its proxies in the region to gain leverage in potential talks with the administration of incoming US President Donald Trump.
“If Iran loses too much of its position in the region, will they become too weak to negotiate? But if they fight to try to maintain that position as much as possible, will they see the war getting to that point “Where do we risk escalating a situation where diplomacy may no longer be possible?” Mr Parsi said.
lebanon
According to experts, events in Syria are sure to have an impact on Lebanon, where a ceasefire agreement between Tehran’s proxy Hezbollah and Israel hangs in the balance. Hezbollah was a key player in preserving the Assad regime, but has been weakened by the war with Israel.
If Syrian rebels manage to reach the Lebanese border, Hezbollah’s main logistics and supply route from Iran – which runs through Syria and Iraq – could be cut off, limiting Tehran’s proxies to Lebanon.
“One of the reasons for what is happening today in Syria is the control of the Syrian-Lebanese borders to prevent the entry of strategic weapons into Lebanon,” Euronews quoted Antoine Habchi, the Lebanese MP for the Beqaa Valley, as saying.
“Turkey has tried to ensure that the Lebanese borders are not a route for the transfer of strategic weapons through Syria. Even al-Assad does not control the passage through its territory here, Which is controlled by other factions and international forces, and especially Iran,” Mr Habchi said.
turkey
Turkey was trying to increase its influence with President Assad to strengthen its position in the region and create a buffer zone allowing it to keep closer control over Kurdish separatists based on the Turkey-Syria border. Ankara represented the rebels in talks with Russia over the past decade, which ultimately led to a ceasefire agreement between the Syrian government and opposition forces in 2020.
Despite support from opposition forces, Turkey has not ruled out rapprochement with Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long opposed Kurdish nationalism. He has repeatedly said that his ultimate goal is to eliminate the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish leftist militant and political group based in Turkey and Iraq that has fought the Turkish state for more than three decades.
Another goal of Ankara is reportedly to maintain control over oil-rich Syrian sanctuaries in the country’s semi-autonomous northern regions.
israel
The imbalance of power in Syria has also put Israel in a difficult position. While President Assad views Israel as an enemy, he does not pose a direct threat to Tel Aviv and chose not to respond to regular Israeli strikes in Syria last year.
However, Assad’s regime allowed Iran to use its territory to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. But Mr Assad’s fall did not come as a relief to Israel because the group leading the rebellion in Syria is Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), whose leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani is a former al Qaeda fighter with Islamist ideology who opposes Israel. Is.
“Israel is between Iran, its proxies and Syria’s Islamic rebels,” former Israeli intelligence officer Avi Melamed told CNN.
“As far as Israel is concerned, neither option is good but for now Iran and its proxies have been weakened, which is good,” he said.
The newly revived conflict has allowed Tel Aviv to resume attacks on targets in Syrian territory. Suspected Israeli airstrikes hit the Mazzeh district of Damascus on Sunday, Reuters reports.
According to reports, jets believed to be Israeli also bombed Khalkha air base in southern Syria, which was evacuated by the Syrian army overnight. Regional security sources also told the agency that at least six strikes hit the main airport north of Suwayda city, which has a large stockpile of rockets and missiles fired by Syrian troops.
A source told Reuters the aim of the attack appeared to be to prevent these weapons from falling into the hands of radical groups.
